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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 35 …by - ty of Friendship Mutual Assistance; and Cooperation signed exercises, and by the size of the…
  • p. 165 …to keep ships, but also of their cooperation with each other and up with fast-moving…
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such as their relatively high speeds. They further note terms of a radar coverage, as well as fighter coverage,
that any assessment of the potential effectiveness of that would have suffered some degradation in the
Soviet submarines, naval aircraft, and surface ships early stages of hostilities. Likewise, the US sound
should include consideration of their operation as a surveillance_systemL
mutually supportive force; they feel that this is only [ _ shoukdbe expected to sufer early
partially achieved in paragraph 197. degradation, especially in view of the detailed Soviet
knowledge of and concern about its capabilities. In-
199. According to this view, paragraphs 191-197, in deed, even during peacetime, important links of the
addition to an essentially negative. treatment of Soviet SOSUS have, on a number of occasions, been cut and
platforms, assess their effectiveness in tactical contexts temporarily disabled by unknown shipping.
which convey an impression of NATO capabilities that 200. Finally, the holders of this view note that these
is maximal and unrealistic. paragraphs reflect insufficient regard for evidence of
demonstrated Soviet naval effectiveness
Realistically, the potential effective-
ness of Soviet strike aircraft should be measured in
IV-42
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.