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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Table IV-9 probably would allocate many of their best submarines
for antisubmarine warfare-those of the V-class-to
Soviet General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated operations in the area south of the G-I-UK gap and.off
To Be Available for Use in the the four NATO SSBN bases in the Atlantic. (See figure
North Atlantic Ocean IV-7.) Furthermore, some of these ASW submarines
___ _January 1979 might also provide tactical support to Y-class SSBNs,
Cruise Missile Submarines which have to pass south of the gap to cover targets in
Nuclear ..................... _............. . 15 the eastern United States. These tasks would require
D iese l ............_. ...._. . . . . . , . ..... ..... .. 7D e some two-thirds (six to 10 units) of those V-class
Total ... ....................... 22 submarines available for even minimal coverage.
Torpedo Attack Submarines 167.
Nuclear ....... ................................... 10 Soviets mig
Dicsel ................ ............................ 32
also want to commit some C-class submarines to
Total .......... ........ 51 operations south of the gap, in the vicinity of Great
Principal Surface Combatants Britain, and along the carrier transit routes to the
Aircraft Carriers 1 Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. They probably
Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept
Cruisers ... 1
Missile Destroyers 4 and trail Western aircraft carriers, amphibious task
Destroyers ....... 4 forces, and other important targets as war became
Missile Frigates 4 imminent, and to attack them at the outset of hostil-
Frigates ....... 28 ities. Almost all of the available C-class submarines
Total ... 48 (five to seven units) would be needed for minimal
Naval Aircraft coverage of these areas.
Strike Aircraft .......... .............. .............. 58 168. There is disagreement regarding the likely
Reconnaissance/Electronic Warfare Aircraft 49
Tankers ............ number and role of other Soviet submarines which
Fighters/Fighter-Bombers ....... .. 11 would be deployed south of Iceland. According to one
ASW Fixed-Wing Aircraft ..... ....... .......... 48 view,'6 about 10 other submarines would probably be
ASW/Reconnaissance Helicopters ........... 48 deployed south of Iceland and consist mostly of long-
Total .......................... . ....... ........... 233 range diesel torpedo attack units. These subm arines
- probably would be dispersed in North Atlantic ship-* General purpose forces assigned to the Soviet Nothern Fleet.
Assumes that 60 percent of general purpose submarines, 70 percent ping lanes for reconnaissance and attacks on NATO
of surface combatants, and 85 percent of naval aircraft would be shipping and naval targets of opportunity. Alterna-
available after four lays of preparation. See paragraphs 102 and 103 tively a few might lay mines in confined waters near
and table 11-8 in chapter II for information concerning the normal NATO naval bases and ports. Others might patrol off
peacetime availability of Soviet naval forces. Some of these units major NATO naval bases to report on NATO move-
could also be used in support of operations against northern Norway.
Does not include two cruise missile and eight torpedo attack ments and attack major warships.
submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial
wartime deployment, some 20 submarines would
probably be positioned in the Atlantic astride NATO's
continue to concentrate their efforts in the Norwegian
and arets Sa.'sea lines of communication to attack NA TO warships
and Barents Sea.' and those convoys or ships carrying equipment for US
Ui6-Onerations_Sou.th_oIIeland Army divisions in the initial phase of a war. The
number of Soviet submarines dedicated to this effort
tie So-ies would depend upon the number of carriers which the
Soviets would believe likely to deploy to the Norwe-
sIn view of the foregoing, the Director, Defense Intelligence
Agency, notes that the allocation of specific numbers and classes 6 The holders of this view are the Central Intelligence Agency;
of Soviet submarines to specific tasks and ocean areas in para- the Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of
graphs 166-190 does not necessarily represent a high-confidence State; and the Director, National Security Agency.
judgment of most probable Soviet courses of action. The inherent
flexibilit y of naval warfare and the range of options available to a " The holders of this view are the Director, Defense Intelligence
force as large as the Soviet Navy leads him to caution that other Agency, and the Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the
initial force allocations may be equally likely. Navy.
IV-35
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.