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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
Table IV-9 probably would allocate many of their best submarines
for antisubmarine warfare-those of the V-class-to
Soviet General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated operations in the area south of the G-I-UK gap and.off
To Be Available for Use in the the four NATO SSBN bases in the Atlantic. (See figure
North Atlantic Ocean IV-7.) Furthermore, some of these ASW submarines
___ _January 1979 might also provide tactical support to Y-class SSBNs,
Cruise Missile Submarines which have to pass south of the gap to cover targets in
Nuclear ..................... _............. . 15 the eastern United States. These tasks would require
D iese l ............_. ...._. . . . . . , . ..... ..... .. 7D e some two-thirds (six to 10 units) of those V-class
Total ... ....................... 22 submarines available for even minimal coverage.
Torpedo Attack Submarines 167.
Nuclear ....... ................................... 10 Soviets mig
Dicsel ................ ............................ 32
also want to commit some C-class submarines to
Total .......... ........ 51 operations south of the gap, in the vicinity of Great
Principal Surface Combatants Britain, and along the carrier transit routes to the
Aircraft Carriers 1 Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. They probably
Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept
Cruisers ... 1
Missile Destroyers 4 and trail Western aircraft carriers, amphibious task
Destroyers ....... 4 forces, and other important targets as war became
Missile Frigates 4 imminent, and to attack them at the outset of hostil-
Frigates ....... 28 ities. Almost all of the available C-class submarines
Total ... 48 (five to seven units) would be needed for minimal
Naval Aircraft coverage of these areas.
Strike Aircraft .......... .............. .............. 58 168. There is disagreement regarding the likely
Reconnaissance/Electronic Warfare Aircraft 49
Tankers ............ number and role of other Soviet submarines which
Fighters/Fighter-Bombers ....... .. 11 would be deployed south of Iceland. According to one
ASW Fixed-Wing Aircraft ..... ....... .......... 48 view,'6 about 10 other submarines would probably be
ASW/Reconnaissance Helicopters ........... 48 deployed south of Iceland and consist mostly of long-
Total .......................... . ....... ........... 233 range diesel torpedo attack units. These subm arines
- probably would be dispersed in North Atlantic ship-* General purpose forces assigned to the Soviet Nothern Fleet.
Assumes that 60 percent of general purpose submarines, 70 percent ping lanes for reconnaissance and attacks on NATO
of surface combatants, and 85 percent of naval aircraft would be shipping and naval targets of opportunity. Alterna-
available after four lays of preparation. See paragraphs 102 and 103 tively a few might lay mines in confined waters near
and table 11-8 in chapter II for information concerning the normal NATO naval bases and ports. Others might patrol off
peacetime availability of Soviet naval forces. Some of these units major NATO naval bases to report on NATO move-
could also be used in support of operations against northern Norway.
Does not include two cruise missile and eight torpedo attack ments and attack major warships.
submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial
wartime deployment, some 20 submarines would
probably be positioned in the Atlantic astride NATO's
continue to concentrate their efforts in the Norwegian
and arets Sa.'sea lines of communication to attack NA TO warships
and Barents Sea.' and those convoys or ships carrying equipment for US
Ui6-Onerations_Sou.th_oIIeland Army divisions in the initial phase of a war. The
number of Soviet submarines dedicated to this effort
tie So-ies would depend upon the number of carriers which the
Soviets would believe likely to deploy to the Norwe-
sIn view of the foregoing, the Director, Defense Intelligence
Agency, notes that the allocation of specific numbers and classes 6 The holders of this view are the Central Intelligence Agency;
of Soviet submarines to specific tasks and ocean areas in para- the Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of
graphs 166-190 does not necessarily represent a high-confidence State; and the Director, National Security Agency.
judgment of most probable Soviet courses of action. The inherent
flexibilit y of naval warfare and the range of options available to a " The holders of this view are the Director, Defense Intelligence
force as large as the Soviet Navy leads him to caution that other Agency, and the Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the
initial force allocations may be equally likely. Navy.
IV-35
c ret

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.