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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
Table IV-7
Warsaw Pact Tactical Aircraft Available for Use in the
Southwestern Theater of Military Operations
January 1979
In the Balkans- In the
-- Southwestern
Soviet NSWP USSR b Total
Fighters ................................ 135 60 315 510
Fighter-Bombers ......................... 45 165 125 335
Light Bombers..... .................... 30 - - 30
Reconnaissance/Electronic Warfare Air-
craft . .... ........................ 35 60 105 200
Total ....... .......... ............ 245 285 545 1,075
Soviet tactical air forces in Hungary and the tactical air components of-the Romanian and Bulgarian Air
Forces. An additional 435 intercepter aircraft are assigned to the Hungarian, Romanian, and Bulgarian
National Air Defense Commands.
b Soviet tactical aircraft based in the Odessa, Kiev, and Transcaucasus Military Districts.
'5ECMW.
134. The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern
advantages of such an attack are largely offset by the Fleet is also possible.
fact that Soviet strike aircraft would have to take off 136. Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the
several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships, entire Mediterranean from Black Sea airfields. Bad-
moreover, depend on centralized command and con-
trol from shore and would generate a high volume of ger aircraft can carry out attacks in most of the eastern
specialized communications. These actions could alert - from Black Sea or NSWP airfields. The
NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean of the availability of airfields in a friendly North African
imoending___perations._ country to stage or recovery would allow the Soviets to
aors inpoitonoatakarc improve the effectiveness of air operations in theforces in a position to attack aircraft entire Mediterranean. At the present time, however,
carriers should not await the arrival of other forces. n t Mediane. a e pre t t e hover,
no North African airfields are available to the Soviets.
137.
whenever possible, the Soviets
would use 20 to 40 aircraft to attack an important
target such as an aircraft carrier task group. This
number would be designed to overwhelm NATO air
135. Operations by Naval Aircraft in the Medi- defenses and achieve the six to 10 hits which the
terranean. While the most immediate threat would Soviets believe are necessary to disable an aircraft
come from Soviet ships and submarines already de- carrier using conventional warheads.
played in the Mediterranean, numerically the most
sizable threat to NATO's naval forces there would
come from missile-equipped Soviet strike aircraft,
despite the fact that they would be operating without
fighter escort. In a conventional war the USSR-based 138. Submarine Operations in the Mediterra-
Black Sea Air Force could sortie about 40 ASM- nean. The Soviets normally keep eight to 10 subma-
carrying strike aircraft, with as many as 80 missiles, rines, including two cruise missile units, in the Medi-
which could attack throughout the eastern Mediterra- terranean in peacetime. The cruise missile submarines
nean. The Soviets would probably hold another 20 usually keep a Western aircraft carrier within range of
ASM carriers with 40 missiles in reserve as a hedge their missiles and probably would be in a position to
against escalation to nuclear war. Soviet exercises and
training indicates that any reinforcement of the Black oSee paragraphs 178 and 179 of chapter ITfor a discussion of the
Sea Air Force would most likely come from the Baltic Backfire's capabilities.
IV-29
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.