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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
Top
Table IV-4
Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use in
the Western Theater of Military Operations
January 1979,a
Soviet b NSWP e Total
General Purpose Submarines
Cruise Missile Units ......... ..................... 1 - 1
Torpedo Attack Units .......... ............ ......... . 14 2 16
Principal Surface Combatants
Cruisers .. ................................. .... . 3 - 3
Destroyers .. ..................................... 8 1 9
Frigates ...... 24 2 26
Amphibious Ships . . 14 23 37
Naval Aircraft d
Strike Aircraft .... .... ..................... ...... 78 - 78
Reconnaissance/Flcetronic Warfare Aircraft ... 12 9 21
Tankers ........ ...................... ......... 18 - 18
Fighters/Fighter-Bombers .................... 32 44 76
ASW Fixed-Wing Aircraft ............................. 18 - 18
ASW/Rteconnaissance Helicopters ................... 26 36 62
a Assumes that 60 percent of general purpose submarines, 70 percent of surface combatants, and 85
percent of naval aircraft would be available given four days of preparation. See paragraphs 102 and 103 and
table 11-8 in chapter Il for information concerning normal peacetime availability of Soviet naval forces.
b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships and 52
reserve submarines.
The East German and Polish Navies. Does not include minor surface combatants.
Operations of naval aircraft in the Western TVD would be augmented by those of Pact national air
defense forces, Frontal Aviation, and Soviet Long Range Aviation.
89. The Soviets probably would find it difficult to and air superiority for the protection of subsequent
deal with West-German and Danish submarines in the Pact amphibious operations. Pact air forces probably
Baltic, particularly if these forces were well coordinated. would also operate against NATO naval forces in the
NATO boats have good shallow-water operating capa- North Sea. Initial strikes by Baltic Fleet bombers
bilities, are quiet, and have well-trained crews. More- against NATO air defenses in Denmark and northern
over, the Soviets would find it difficult to conduct West Germany might be part of air operations in
antisubmarine warfare (ASW) operations without air Central Europe or at least would be coordinated with
superiority. Under the difficult hydrological condi- those operations. Such strikes would facilitate the
tions that generally characterize the Baltic, we believe overflight of Soviet naval aircraft en route to NATO
that Pact ASW sensors would be inadequate to detect naval targets in the North Sea.
submarines at useful ranges except possibly in harbor 91. Achievement of air superiority over the Baltic
entrassces and a few close-in coastal areas. would depend largely on the success of the Pact's
critical offensive air operations in Central Europe. In
addition, Pact naval forces would benefit from effec-
tive operations by the national air defense forces. Pact
tactical aircraft supporting ground troops in coastal
90. Air Operations. Air superiority would be a areas could also contribute to the contest for air
9. inreatint sPAir sualtictea oratios bA superiority. Fighter cover for surface ships operatingcritical ingredient to Pact Baltic Sea operations. As i h etr atc~oidb tteepneo te
part of the effort to gain overall theater air superiority ithe western Baltic would be at the expense of other
at the outset of a conflict in Central Europe, initial mssions related to the major air and land battle in the
Pact air operations in the Baltic would be directed Central Region, however.
against West German and Danish naval bases and 92. About 15 of the major Soviet Baltic Fleet
airfields and against NATO naval units already pres- warships, one East German frigate, and one Polish
ent in the area in an attempt to establish sea control destroyer have surface-to-air missile systems. These
IV-21
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.