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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
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56. Tactical aircraft attacking HAWK units would aircraft, orbiting over East Germany and Czechoslova-
seek to destroy their fire control radars and associated kia at 6,000 meters, could cover most NATO ground-
electronics vans by using cannon fire and unguided based radars throughout West Germany.
bombs anl rockets. Area denial weapons such as
cluster bomb units are also known to be in the Pact 60. Escort jamming for the main strike force would
inventory and would facilitate an attack on dispersed be provided by LRA's specialized ECM aircraft,
targets. Pact tactical aircraft could also use the AS-7 which carry both jammers and chaff. About 20 per-
Kerry tactical air-to-surface missile, but its effective- cent of the LRA Badger force opposite NATO (65
ness is limited by its small warhead, poor accuracy, Badger H/J aircraft) currently has a dedicated ECM
and the vulnerability it imposes on the delivery air- role. About 40 Brewer E aircraft in Soviet Frontal
craft because of the requirement to guide it to the Aviation arc also available to provide standoff or
target. Some attacks might also be carried out by escort jamming support. All Soviet bombers and a few
tactical aircraft equipped with AS-10 laser-guided or types of Pact fighters are equipped with onboard
AS-9 antiradiation missiles. jammers for use against air intercept and surface-to-air
missile radars. Large numbers of Pact tactical aircraft
57. In recent years, LRA bombers may have simu- can also be equipped with ECM pods, but this would
lated attacks against NATO's Air Defense Ground reduce their weapons-carrying capability.
Environment (NADGE) radars using longer range
antiradiation missiles. It would be logical for an attack . 6L The main strike force would follow closely the
on these major air defense radar sites, and on the field- defense suppression raids carried out by tactical air
transportable tactical air control system (TACS) ra- units and would be intended to deliver the brunt of
dars, to precede the main defense suppression effort. the attack against NATO airfields, command and
Some missile-equipped LRA bombers could also be control facilities, and nuclear-related targets. LRA
used against NATO air defense missile sites, especially bombers would constitute the primary attacking force.
those protecting important LRA targets in the NATO Soviet planning factors indicate that the bomber force
rear areas. is large enough to attack simultaneously all 1I airfields
in Central Europe which support NATO's nuclear
58. A related aspect of the Air Operation would be delivery aircraft in peacetime. Some tactical fighter-
a large-scale, coordinated jamming effort aimed at bombers would also be used to attack airfields. The
disrupting NATO's air defense radars and comnuni- increased combat radius, payloads, and improved mu-
cations links. The Pact is expected to depend heavily nitions of late-model Pact fighter-bombers enhance
on airborne as well as ground-based electronic counter- their effectiveness in this role.
measures (ECM) to facilitate penetration of NATO
airspace. Techniques are expected to include the
employment of both chaff and broadband noise jam-
ming. The operating frequencies of current NATO air
defense radars are well known and are covered by
existing Pact noise jammers. Pact ground force ECM
units would probably concentrate on the ultrahigh-
frequency (UHF) ground-to-air and air-to-air commu-
nications used to control NATO interceptor oper-
ations. Line-of-sight considerations, however, would
probably limit their effectiveness against NATO air
defense radars.
59. Jamming of NATO's various early warning, 63. Aerial reconnaissance would be conducted dur-
ground-controlled intercept, and acquisition radars ing the Air Operation, primarily by tactical aircraft, to
would be the responsibility of airborne electronic- provide Pact commanders with intelligence needed for
warfare-equipped aircraft such as the AN-12 Cub subsequent targeting and to determine the number
C/D. This aircraft, carrying up to 20 transmitters, can and scope of succeeding assaults. The Pact has three
jam all NATO aircraft control and warning radar primary types of tactical aircraft available for recon-
frequencies. Because of its vulnerability, the Cub C/D naissance: the MIG-25 Foxbat B/D, the YAK-28R
would probably be used in a standoff jamming role. Brewer D, and MIG-21R Fishbed H. Foxbats would
We estimate, for example, that as few as 10 of these probably photograph results of strikes against airfields
IV-16
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.