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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
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56. Tactical aircraft attacking HAWK units would aircraft, orbiting over East Germany and Czechoslova-
seek to destroy their fire control radars and associated kia at 6,000 meters, could cover most NATO ground-
electronics vans by using cannon fire and unguided based radars throughout West Germany.
bombs anl rockets. Area denial weapons such as
cluster bomb units are also known to be in the Pact 60. Escort jamming for the main strike force would
inventory and would facilitate an attack on dispersed be provided by LRA's specialized ECM aircraft,
targets. Pact tactical aircraft could also use the AS-7 which carry both jammers and chaff. About 20 per-
Kerry tactical air-to-surface missile, but its effective- cent of the LRA Badger force opposite NATO (65
ness is limited by its small warhead, poor accuracy, Badger H/J aircraft) currently has a dedicated ECM
and the vulnerability it imposes on the delivery air- role. About 40 Brewer E aircraft in Soviet Frontal
craft because of the requirement to guide it to the Aviation arc also available to provide standoff or
target. Some attacks might also be carried out by escort jamming support. All Soviet bombers and a few
tactical aircraft equipped with AS-10 laser-guided or types of Pact fighters are equipped with onboard
AS-9 antiradiation missiles. jammers for use against air intercept and surface-to-air
missile radars. Large numbers of Pact tactical aircraft
57. In recent years, LRA bombers may have simu- can also be equipped with ECM pods, but this would
lated attacks against NATO's Air Defense Ground reduce their weapons-carrying capability.
Environment (NADGE) radars using longer range
antiradiation missiles. It would be logical for an attack . 6L The main strike force would follow closely the
on these major air defense radar sites, and on the field- defense suppression raids carried out by tactical air
transportable tactical air control system (TACS) ra- units and would be intended to deliver the brunt of
dars, to precede the main defense suppression effort. the attack against NATO airfields, command and
Some missile-equipped LRA bombers could also be control facilities, and nuclear-related targets. LRA
used against NATO air defense missile sites, especially bombers would constitute the primary attacking force.
those protecting important LRA targets in the NATO Soviet planning factors indicate that the bomber force
rear areas. is large enough to attack simultaneously all 1I airfields
in Central Europe which support NATO's nuclear
58. A related aspect of the Air Operation would be delivery aircraft in peacetime. Some tactical fighter-
a large-scale, coordinated jamming effort aimed at bombers would also be used to attack airfields. The
disrupting NATO's air defense radars and comnuni- increased combat radius, payloads, and improved mu-
cations links. The Pact is expected to depend heavily nitions of late-model Pact fighter-bombers enhance
on airborne as well as ground-based electronic counter- their effectiveness in this role.
measures (ECM) to facilitate penetration of NATO
airspace. Techniques are expected to include the
employment of both chaff and broadband noise jam-
ming. The operating frequencies of current NATO air
defense radars are well known and are covered by
existing Pact noise jammers. Pact ground force ECM
units would probably concentrate on the ultrahigh-
frequency (UHF) ground-to-air and air-to-air commu-
nications used to control NATO interceptor oper-
ations. Line-of-sight considerations, however, would
probably limit their effectiveness against NATO air
defense radars.
59. Jamming of NATO's various early warning, 63. Aerial reconnaissance would be conducted dur-
ground-controlled intercept, and acquisition radars ing the Air Operation, primarily by tactical aircraft, to
would be the responsibility of airborne electronic- provide Pact commanders with intelligence needed for
warfare-equipped aircraft such as the AN-12 Cub subsequent targeting and to determine the number
C/D. This aircraft, carrying up to 20 transmitters, can and scope of succeeding assaults. The Pact has three
jam all NATO aircraft control and warning radar primary types of tactical aircraft available for recon-
frequencies. Because of its vulnerability, the Cub C/D naissance: the MIG-25 Foxbat B/D, the YAK-28R
would probably be used in a standoff jamming role. Brewer D, and MIG-21R Fishbed H. Foxbats would
We estimate, for example, that as few as 10 of these probably photograph results of strikes against airfields
IV-16
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.