Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“The Advance”37 pages
Top would be used to suppress air defenses, especially 47. Forces. The Pact has approximately 3,000 tac- IIAWK batteries. They would also be expected to tical aircraft, 775 national air defense fighters, and 525 provide fighter cover for attack aircraft, to pro- LRA bombers available for use in Central Europe. vide reconnaissance and radioelectronic combat (See table IV-2.) Pact writings and exercise scenarios (REC) support, and to attack surface-to-surface lead us to estimate that, of these aircraft, about 350 missile units and some NATO airfields. Non- LRA bombers and 1,200 to 2,100 tactical aircraft Soviet Warsaw Pact national air defense fighters would be made available for use in the Air Operation. would escort Soviet bombers over Pact territory The remaining aircraft would be used to defend Pact and provide strategic air defense of their territory and to provide direct combat support to Pact homelands. ground forces. Some of the remaining aircraft would - Some fighter-bomber and bomber aircraft would also be kept in readiness for the transition to nuclear be withheld for use in nuclear operations, and a war. small number of tactical aircraft would be avail- able for direct support of the ground forces. 48. The number of aircraft available for the initial assault of an Air Operation would vary according to45. Pact planners would regard attacks against the extent to which the Pact mobilized and moved NATO airfields as the principal way of gaining air additional tactical air units within range of NATO superiority. They would intend such attacks to damage targets. Following are three illustrative postures from runways and other airfield facilities and thus degrade which the Pact could launch an Air Operation and an NATO's ability to operate its air forces effectively. estimate of the number of aircraft that would be They would also expect airfield attacks to account for available in each after the Pact had made provision (as most of the aircraft NATO would lose during the Air shown in table IV-3) for possible nuclear escalation Operation. Pact fighter and ground-based air defenses and air support of its ground forces would be expected, however, to contribute to the battle for air superiority by inflicting significant losses - Forces in Place. Aircraft allocated to the Air on NATO's air forces in the air, Operations in this posture would be limited to 46. In its effort to achieve nuclear superiority, the those considered by Pact air force planners to Pact would probably concentrate its attacks on those have a combat radius that would enable the bases from which NATO nuclear delivery aircraft aircraft to strike targets from, and return to, their would operate. Tactical missile launchers would also home bases. Some 1,565 aircraft-350 USSR- be high-priority targets, but they would be difficult to based LRA bombers and 1,215 tactical aircraft locate and we believe that operations against them belonging to Soviet and NSWP units in Central would not involve large numbers of aircraft. Europe-would fall into this category. Soviet Table IV-2 Warsaw Pact Combat Aircraft Available for Use in the Western Theater of Military Operations a In Central Europe b In the USSR - - - ---- - - Grand Soviet NSWP Total Tactical LRA d Total Total Tactical Aircraft Fighters . ............................ .......... 630 235 865 360 - 360 1,225 Fighter-Bombers ........................... .... 405 465 870 435 - 435 1,305 Light Bombers ........... ---............. ..... - - - 30 - 30 30 Reconnaissance/Electronic Warfare Aircraft 140 190 330 105 - 105 435 Total .......................,... .......... 1,175 890 2,065 930 -- 930 2,995 National Air Defense Interceptors.- - 775 775 - - - 775 Long Range Aviation Bombers ....................... - - - - 525 525 525 Total ... .................. .......... 1,175 1,665 2,840 930 525 1,455 4,295 Combat aircraft in combat units. Excludes all trainers and combat aircraft in training or flying-school units. Pact air forces in East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. Tactical air forces in the Baltic, Belorussian, and Carpathian Military Districts. d TU-16 Badgers, TU-22 Blinders, and Backfires in the Northwest and Southwest Bomber Commands. SECRET IV-12 Top aL,
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.