Documents / FOIA release

Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
Top
would be used to suppress air defenses, especially 47. Forces. The Pact has approximately 3,000 tac-
IIAWK batteries. They would also be expected to tical aircraft, 775 national air defense fighters, and 525
provide fighter cover for attack aircraft, to pro- LRA bombers available for use in Central Europe.
vide reconnaissance and radioelectronic combat (See table IV-2.) Pact writings and exercise scenarios
(REC) support, and to attack surface-to-surface lead us to estimate that, of these aircraft, about 350
missile units and some NATO airfields. Non- LRA bombers and 1,200 to 2,100 tactical aircraft
Soviet Warsaw Pact national air defense fighters would be made available for use in the Air Operation.
would escort Soviet bombers over Pact territory The remaining aircraft would be used to defend Pact
and provide strategic air defense of their territory and to provide direct combat support to Pact
homelands. ground forces. Some of the remaining aircraft would
- Some fighter-bomber and bomber aircraft would also be kept in readiness for the transition to nuclear
be withheld for use in nuclear operations, and a war.
small number of tactical aircraft would be avail-
able for direct support of the ground forces. 48. The number of aircraft available for the initial
assault of an Air Operation would vary according to45. Pact planners would regard attacks against the extent to which the Pact mobilized and moved
NATO airfields as the principal way of gaining air additional tactical air units within range of NATO
superiority. They would intend such attacks to damage targets. Following are three illustrative postures from
runways and other airfield facilities and thus degrade which the Pact could launch an Air Operation and an
NATO's ability to operate its air forces effectively. estimate of the number of aircraft that would be
They would also expect airfield attacks to account for available in each after the Pact had made provision (as
most of the aircraft NATO would lose during the Air shown in table IV-3) for possible nuclear escalation
Operation. Pact fighter and ground-based air defenses and air support of its ground forces
would be expected, however, to contribute to the
battle for air superiority by inflicting significant losses - Forces in Place. Aircraft allocated to the Air
on NATO's air forces in the air, Operations in this posture would be limited to
46. In its effort to achieve nuclear superiority, the those considered by Pact air force planners to
Pact would probably concentrate its attacks on those have a combat radius that would enable the
bases from which NATO nuclear delivery aircraft aircraft to strike targets from, and return to, their
would operate. Tactical missile launchers would also home bases. Some 1,565 aircraft-350 USSR-
be high-priority targets, but they would be difficult to based LRA bombers and 1,215 tactical aircraft
locate and we believe that operations against them belonging to Soviet and NSWP units in Central
would not involve large numbers of aircraft. Europe-would fall into this category. Soviet
Table IV-2
Warsaw Pact Combat Aircraft Available for Use in the Western Theater of Military Operations a
In Central Europe b In the USSR
- - - ---- - - Grand
Soviet NSWP Total Tactical LRA d Total Total
Tactical Aircraft
Fighters . ............................ .......... 630 235 865 360 - 360 1,225
Fighter-Bombers ........................... .... 405 465 870 435 - 435 1,305
Light Bombers ........... ---............. ..... - - - 30 - 30 30
Reconnaissance/Electronic Warfare Aircraft 140 190 330 105 - 105 435
Total .......................,... .......... 1,175 890 2,065 930 -- 930 2,995
National Air Defense Interceptors.- - 775 775 - - - 775
Long Range Aviation Bombers ....................... - - - - 525 525 525
Total ... .................. .......... 1,175 1,665 2,840 930 525 1,455 4,295
Combat aircraft in combat units. Excludes all trainers and combat aircraft in training or flying-school units.
Pact air forces in East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia.
Tactical air forces in the Baltic, Belorussian, and Carpathian Military Districts.
d TU-16 Badgers, TU-22 Blinders, and Backfires in the Northwest and Southwest Bomber Commands.
SECRET
IV-12
Top aL,

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.