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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
barrage would then be engaged and overrun by 37. During initial and subsequent operations, Pact
assaulting infantry and tanks. commanders would implement their doctrine for ra-
34. Work to reduce the vulnerability of tanks to dioelectronic combat to locate and either jam or
antitank guided missiles (ATGMs) has been under way destroy NATO communication and radar links. (See
in the Soviet Union since at least the early 1960s, most section F, beginning at paragraph 197, in chapter II.)
of it directed at defeating the high-explosive antitank Ground force jamming units, located on the flanks
(HEAT) warheads which virtually all infantry anti- during the breakthrough operation and with the ad-
tank weapons in both NATO and the Warsaw Pact vance echelons during the subsequent exploitation
employ. To provide better protection, particularly phase, would attempt to jam NATO's command and
against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links.
rated composite or laminated armor arrays in their These links would also be targeted for destruction by
new T-64 and T-72 tanks. The additional tanks which Pact artillery and tactical aircraft.
the Soviets have assigned to their divisions in the past 38. Replacement Concepts. The Pact structures
decade (see paragraph 12 in chapter II) may be and employs its ground forces in ways significantly
intended to compensate for the heavier losses that different from the US approach. In large measure,
Soviet planners expect to sustain from improved anti- these differences account for the different means
tank defenses and to enable assaulting units to over- adopted by the Pact and the United States for replac-
whelm these defenses by sheer numbers. The addition ing personnel and equipment expended in combat.
of an independent tank battalion to a motorized rifle Generally speaking, the Pact designs its combat units
division provides the division commander with an with leaner man-to-equipment ratios and with more
additional maneuver force to commit at a critical modest levels of service support. Pact combat-ready
point in the battle. divisions have roughly the same number of tanks and
35. Subsequent Operations. If a major break- artillery as comparable US divisions, but only about
through were accomplished by the forces of the half as many men. For example, a Soviet tank division
Soviet-East German front, the three tank armies of at combat strength has about 9,500 men, 322 medium
this front probably would launch rapid thrusts- tanks, 60 howitzers, and 18 multiple-round rocket
perhaps aided by airborne assaults-in an attempt to launchers; a US armored division at full strength has
secure crossings over the Rhine near Essen, Frankfurt, around 17,000 men, 324 medium tanks, and 66
and similar points, and continue the advance to at least howitzers.
the French border. The Polish front, upon breaking 39. In Pact doctrine, divisions and, to some extent
through initial defenses in its area, would be responsi- armies would be committed to intensive first-echelon
ble for advancing both into Denmark and across combat missions for relatively short periods of time,
northern Germany into the Netherlands. The Soviet- after which they would be rotated into second echelon
Czechoslovak front would move into southern West or reserve. Respites from combat would be used to
Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the units' effectiveness by replacing personnel
Rhine south of Mannheim. losses and repairing or replacing unserviceable or
36. The roles of the reinforcing fronts from the missing equipment.. This contrasts with US practice of
western USSR would depend on the progress of the designing combat units with the idea of sustaining
initial offensive them in combat for long periods and keeping them
major elements-two or three armies-from one or more or less continuously replenished with personnel
two Soviet fronts from the western USSR transiting and equipment.
Central Europe in time to enter combat by the end of 40. Thus, Pact and US replacement concepts are
the first week of fighting. The origins of the initial consistent with their respective force structures and
reinforcements and their exact areas of responsibility employment practices and confer no particular advan-
when committed to battle are variously depicted tage. The Soviets stress unit rather than individual
forces in the Belorussian and Car- replacements for combat units under engagement in
pathian Military Districts are used most frequently. both conventional and nuclear war and probably
When the front from the Baltic Military District is would confine individual replacements mainly to com-
committed, it usually enters the battle between the bat units in second echelon or reserve. The United
Soviet-East German and Polish fronts States plans for unit replacement in nuclear war but
would generally stress individual replacements in con-
ventional war.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.