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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Option II: Three Fronts Figure IV-2
Pol.
Warsaw Pact Options r 5so
for Initial Attack Force in the Central Region ~ EAST
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GERMANY Warsaw
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o POLAND U.S.S.R.
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Option II: Two Fronts Prague
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GEast NYGra ;The Warsaw Pact envisinse a basic force of three frontsas the first echelonof an attackons GermanY NATO. As depictedin Pact doctrineand exercises, this three-tront force includes 50 to 60 groundSovet Front E divisions plus supportdandracica air unit. About erght days would be reeded 0prepare
WET 'POLAND U.S.S.R this force.
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Option IV: Five Fronts
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The smallest force the Pact might use to starttheater offensive operationsprobablywouldcon- -r - pFroM
sisr of two fronts-a total of some40 ground divisions plus support and tacticalair units. In the -n
mneturgentcircumstances, the Pactwould need about four daysto preparethisforce Attackwith . ' Belorussian
slightly less than fourdays is possible, but the complexity of the operation and the risks attending NETH EAST ( Front
insuficimet preparationwouldlikolycausethe Sovietsto takemorethan iour daysto prepare -Berlin
this horce. 'GERMANY - Warsaw
- East.Gorman-.
WEST Soviet Front
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Estalishmenr of a five-frontposture-someBOto 90 ground dvisions-before initiating an often- ) A
siue againstNATOwould fultill Sovietconservativedoctrinalpreferencesto the eaten possiblein SWITZERLAND te u. f HUNGARY
pracicalterms ard would take abouttwo weeksto achieve OMANIA
SECRET IV-5
TCS 2267-79111 Top Secret

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.