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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
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Other recently completed National Intelligence Estimates and
Interagency Intelligence Memorandums contain cornmprehensive assess-
ments of some issues that are given summary treatment in this
document.
- NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global
Power Arena, describes the broad strategic and political
considerations which shape the Soviet defense posture.
- NiE 4-1-78, Warsaw Pact Concepts and Capabilitiesfor Going
to War in Europe: Implications for NATO Warning of War,
assesses Pact attack options in Central Europe and the
intelligence basis for our estimate of NATO's warning time
there.
- NIE 11-3/8-78, Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear
Conflict Through the Late 1980s, and NIE 11-6-78, Soviet
Strategic Forces for Peripheral Attack, contain detailed
estimates of Soviet strategic forces available for use against
NATO.
- NIE 11-10-79, Soviet Military Capabilities To Project Power
and Influence in Distant Areas.
- NI IIM 78-10018J, Indications and Warning of Soviet
Intentions To Use Chemical Weapons During a NATO-
Warsaw Pact War.
- N1 1IM 78-10029, Assessed Manpower of Warsaw Pact Forces
in the NATO Guidelines Area.
- NI IIM 78-10027J, A Survey of Warsaw Pact Concealment,
Deception, and Intelligence Denial Activity.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.