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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
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CHAPTER III
WARSAW PACT COMMAND AND CONTROL
1. The Pact's success in achieving its wartime objec- A. The Wartime Command Structure
tives would depend on its ability to control and 4. The ultimate authority for the direction of the
coordinate multinational, joint-service operations of Soviet military rests with the Politburo of the Cornmu-
great complexity. individual member na- nist Party of the Soviet Union. The wartime role of the
tions have the command and control elements neces- Politburo is unclear, but its involvement as a group
sary to form the Pact's wartime control structure, C would probably be limited to only the most crucial
decisions. A subset of the Politburo, the Defense
Council, establishes military policy and makes funda-
mental decisions regarding the employment of mili-
tary forces. We believe that the Defense Council
would form the nucleus of a largely civilian national
2. In peacetime, the Warsaw Pact headduirters defense command organ. This body
does not control the armed forces of member states would consider all defense issues and provide broad
Each state controls its armed forces through its national guidelines for the conduct of military operations.
command authority, which is made up of key party,
government, and military leaders. (See figure 1II-1.) 5. Brezhnev, predesignated as Supreme Commander
Operational control of national forces is exercised by in Chief, would lead a Supreme High Command
each country's general staff. Overall Pact defense (Verkhovnoye Glavnokomandovaniye-VGK) drawn
planning is coordinated among Pact members, but the from elements of the Ministry of Defense. (See figure
process is clearly Soviet dominated. III-3.) This command would constitute the military-
strategic leadership over all Pact military operations
3. Establishment of the Pact wartime command against NATO. The VGK probably includes at least
system is not automatic. It entails authoritative release the three first deputy ministers of defense and the
of forces from national control and their subordination commanders in chief of the five components of the
to the Pact's high command.' Political and military Soviet armed forces. One of the Soviet first deputy
consultations between senior Pact leaders would be ministers of defense (currently, Marshal Kulikov) is
necessary to coordinate preparations for war. These the commander in chief of the combined armed forces
consultations could be made in person or by telephone. of the Warsaw Pact member states. The Soviet Gener-
There are telecommunication systems connecting East al Staff is the executive agent of the VGK and, as such,
European capitals and Moscow which can provide is the focal point for operational control of Soviet
Euroeancapi~lsandMoscw wichcatmproide armed forces and those of the Pact in wartime.
secure communications for telephone consultations.
East European and Soviet national command authori- 6. We believe that, should a war occur between the
ties also have special secure communications at their Warsaw Pact and NATO, theater commands (see
disposal. inset) would be established and exercise direct oper-
ational control over fronts and fleets and at least some
' For a detailed treatment of the alert and mobilization Proce- degree of control over those strategic assets allocated to
dures and the peacetime readiness and Pact forces, see NIE 4-1-78, support theater operations. The Soviets refer to these
Warsaw Pact Concepts and Capabilities for Coing to War in commands as High Commands of troops in a Theater
Europe: Implications for NATO Warning of War. -of War (TV) or Theater of Military Operations (TVD).
II-i

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.