Documents / FOIA release

Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
older ships, are the only ones capable of underway ments, these generally have not been adequate. Resup-
refueling alongside. The remaining smaller oilers are ,ply of fresh water remains a major requirement.
restricted to using the bow-to-stern method where only
one ship is serviced, either by replenishment under 251. The Soviet Navy is also deficient in its ability
way at slow speed, by lying dead in the water, or at to replenish dry cargo while under way. Soviet stores
anchor. The Soviets continue to practice the bow-to- and refrigerator ships are not capable of underway
stern method more frequently than alongside refuel- transfer, but the six replenishment oilers in the Soviet
ing. Diesel submarines are fueled at anchor. We western fleets can carry dry cargo and have a limited
believe these limitations would constrain Soviet ability capability to transfer while under way. The Soviets
to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however,
and instead conduct almost all reprovisioning while
247. A major constraint on extended combat oper- dead in the water, at anchor, or in port.
ations by Soviet missile armed ships and submarines is
their generally small supply of onboard weapons 252. Shipboard Maintenance and Damage Con-
reloads. trol. The sustainability of individual ships in combat is
directly related to the availability of onboard spare
parts and the ability of crews to maintain equipment
under the rigors of combat and to repair battle
damage at sea quickly and effectively. Most modern
combatants and submarines in the Soviet Navy prob-
ably have sufficient spares to permit them to accom-
plish their initial wartime tasks before resorting to
resupply. Although Soviet naval crews probably would
248 The amount of provisions carried aboard prin- be capable of handling most routine repairs, they are
cipal Soviet surface combatants and submarines varies by and large still poorly equipped and trained for
with the age and type of unit. Ships of the Kiev and damage control.
Moskva class, nuclear submarines, and long-range
diesel submarines are believed to carry at least 60 days 253. Because of their heavy reliance on depot main-
of supplies, while Kara and Kresta-Il units and medium- tenance and repair, the Soviets have not developed an
range diesel submarines carry an estimated 40-day extensive capability to maintain and repair ships at
load. The older cruisers and newer destroyers hold sea. Soviet shipboard maintenance and repair prac-
sufficient provisions for 30 (lays of operation, while tices, therefore, are not optimized for sustaining com-
older destroyers and frigates are self-sufficient for bat operations at sea and, in our judgment, would
about 20 days. constitute a constraint on sustained operations. Aboard
ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection
249. The Soviet Navy has the capability for dead- and maintenance system which requires maintenance
in-the-water munitions replenishment but only a mar- to be performed periodically. Much shipboard main-
ginal capability for underway transfer of munitions. tenance and most repairs are accomplished by officers
There have been examples of underway munitions and warrant officers rather than by enlisted personnel
resupply at sea, but, on the whole, the Soviets have because of the low technical proficiency of the latter.
thus far preferred to handle munitions transfer at The officers are extensively trained in their fields of
anchorages and ports. The lack of training in at-sea specialization and are able to repair most routine
munitions resupply, like that of refueling, places a equipment and machinery malfunctions.
limitation on the Soviet Navy's ability to maintain
combat-capable forces at sea for extended periods, 254. Although we have limited information on
particularly in those sea and ocean areas vhere transit Soviet damage control procedures and effectiveness,
times to sources of supply are long. there is ample evidence that damage control requires
improvement. Four major incidents at sea, between
250. Soviet combatants,are deficient in their capa- 1968 and 1974 resulted in substantial casualties and
bility to make fresh water. The Navy requires fresh may have been aggravated by the lack of an effective
water for crews and for boilers of steam-driven ships, damage control organization.
which make up the majority of Soviet principal sur-
face combatants. Although Soviet ships usually have
evaporators to distill seawater for shipboard require-
11-70
Topee

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.