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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
training regiments requirements which are unique to air operations, such
as aviation POL; and the military district (within the
Replacement personnel USSR) or the front-level rear service organizations
would also be available from the large pool of reserv- supply common-use items. The front is responsible for
ists in the USSR. NSWP countries similarly have large storing and delivering common-use items to all mili-
reservist pools and well-organized mobilization tary units within its organization. It is also required to
systems. supplement the motor transport resources of an air
234. We believe that, rather than depend on stock- army.
piles of war reserve equipment to replace losses in the 237. Stockpiles. In addition to airfield stocks, there
early stages of a war, the Soviets would rely upon unit are stocks of POL, ammunition, and technical and
replacement by fully equipped units which exist in common supplies stored at centrally located depots
peacetime as low-strength or mobilization divisions. throughout the Warsaw Pact. Air units would normally
The large number of such units available are probably be expected to replenish their airfield stocks from
viewed by the Soviets as sufficient to sustain the forces these off-base depots. Air units usually draw their
until such time as production after M-day could build technical supplies from centrally located air force
up new equipment reserves. The Soviets have modest supply depots and draw their common supplies from
stockpiles of older equipment not in units in the USSR, centrally located supply depots under the operational
but our information on the serviceability and purpose control of front rear service elements. There are some
of this equipment is scant. The stockpiles include some air force depots which support air units with both
1,400 tanks, approximately 7,000 artillery pieces, some technical and common supplies.
8,500 various air defense artillery pieces, about 600 238. Pact air forces are calculated to have 290,600
armored personnel carriers, and miscellaneous equip- metric tons of ammunition, bombs, and rockets stock-
ment, all in the military districts west of the Urals. piled in the Central Region-East Germany, Czecho-
235. Production. Production factors and surge slovakia, and Poland-and an additional 130,000 tons
rates would not have a significant impact on the in the USSR west of the Urals." POL storage facilities
ratces wo anort avewar signifantopaTe lsthe associated with-Pact air forces have a calculated totaloutcome of a short war in Europe. The logistic of25mlin etctnsnsorgimdaey
capability of the Pact to support a protracted conflict of 2.5 million metric tons in storage immediately
would depend largely on whether production rates opposite the NATO Central Region: 1.3 million in the
could keep pace with expenditure and attrition rates. East Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia, and 1.2
For the most critical supply category, ammunition, the million in the three western military districts of the
estimated monthly capacity of plants producing con USSR. This does not include a substantial amount of
ventional small arms, tank, and artillery ammunition POL stored in airfield facilities.
in East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the 239.. Consumption. We calculate that, during a
USSR are shown in table 11-18. three-front operation lasting 12 days, Warsaw Pact air
Air Forces forces would expend approximately 143,000 tons of
236. Doctrine. Warsaw Pact air force logistic doc-
trine calls for the distribution of supplies to air units in
two ways: air force channels provide the logistics
Table II-18
Estimated Monthly Ammunition Production Capability of the USSR,
East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia
January 1979
(metric tons)
M-Day M+30 M+60 M+90 M+120
Small arms, tank, and artillery 50,000 50,000 105,000 125,000 125,000
ammunition to to to to to
_ 60,000 60,000 110,000 130,00 130,000
11-68
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.