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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
SCOPE NOTE
National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79 is concerned with Warsaw
Pact forces that are available for use against NATO.* It assesses the
present and future capabilities of these forces for conventional,
chemical, and theater nuclear warfare. It generally covers a period of
five years in its future considerations but extends to 1.0 years where the
information allows. This Estimate does not provide detailed treatment
of Soviet forces along the Sino-Soviet border, the Soviet Pacific Fleet, or
other forces in the Soviet Far East. Soviet military operations in distant
areas during a NATO-Warsaw Pact war are considered in an annex.
The Estimate treats the following elements of the Pact's military
forces:
- Ground Forces. The ground forces (including airborne and
heliborne forces) of the USSR, East Germany, Poland, Czechoslo-
vakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and their organic air
defense and tactical nuclear systems.
- Air and Air Defense Forces. Soviet Frontal (tactical) Aviation,
Military Transport Aviation, and the bombers of Soviet Long
Range Aviation, as well as the tactical air and national air
defense forces (including ground-based systems) of the non-
Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP) countries.
- Naval Forces. The general purpose submarines, surface ships,
aircraft, auxiliaries, and amphibious forces of the three western
Soviet fleets and the NSWP navies.
- Soviet Ballistic Missile Forces for Peripheral Attack. Those
Soviet land-based (MRBMs, IRBMs, and ICBMs) and submarine-
launched (SLBMs) ballistic missiles which are available for use
against NATO in the European theater.
- Support Functions. Those activities and organizations which
support and integrate Pact forces, such as command, control, and
communications systems and logistic services.
*For the purpose of this Estimate, Pact general purpose ground and air forces available for early use
against NA'T'O include those located in the non-Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP) nations and in the USSR's
Baltic, Belorussian, Carpathian, Leningrad, Odessa, Kiev, North Caucasus, and Transcaucasus Military
Districts. Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO
or elsewhere. Also included in this Estimate are Pact general purpose naval forces in the three western
Soviet fleets, including the Mediterranean Squadron, and the NSWP navies, as well as Soviet strategic forces
which could. be enployed against European targets in a peripheral attack role.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.