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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
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mobilization. The holders of this view point out that and low-bed semitrailer, the standard tank transporter
the fact that Category II and III divisions and nondivi- of the Soviet ground forces. Six heavy lift regiments
sional motor transport units do not have all their cargo have been identified in the USSR opposite NATO:
vehicles or drivers in peacetime is not unique; all four in the western USSR and one each in the Moscow
lower category units rely on mobilization. Trucks used and Odessa Military Districts, These units are capable
in the civilian sector are similar and often identical to of transporting all the tanks of five or six tank
their military counterparts. Since the bulk of those divisions. They provide a significant capability for the
vehicles in the USSR designated for mobilization are strategic movement of armor by road. The concept,
organized into paramilitary units (avtokolonnas), there developed at least as early as 1967, was used in the
would be little difficulty in integrating this equipment 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heavy lift regiments
into military units. Upon mobilization, reservist increase the alternatives available to Soviet planners,
drivers of these vehicles would be performing duties and would add flexibility and speed to any reinforce-
closely related to their civilian occupation and, in the ment of Soviet forces in Eastern Europe.
case of paramilitary transport organizations, for the
same supervisors. Thus, the integration of these reserv- p24 . R
ists into motor transport units would be easier than for primary means of transportation during mobilization,
most other reservists, whose civilian occupations have for long-distance movements. The Pact rail network in
no corresponding military duties, The holders of this Central Europe is dense, totaling about 51,000 kilo-
view further point out that analyses of the perform- meters, and, conveniently for military operations, it
ance of Soviet motor transport conducted after the generally runs east to west. Its centralized control
1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia do not support the facilitates responsiveness to military requirements.
conclusion that there were serious weaknesses in the The major through-routes connecting Central Europe
system. On the contrary, these analyses concluded that and the western USSR have a combined capacity of
the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia demonstrated about 500,000 metric tons per day in each direction. In
the adequacy of rear service elements to support large- contrast to the well-established network in Central
scale ground force deployments, and that vehicle Europe, the rail networks on the flanks are not nearly
reliability and maintenance appeared satisfactory. In as dense or well developed.
any event, the number of avtokolonnas has increased 225. The highway system in East Germany, Poland,
greatly since 1968 and currently numbers more than and Czechoslovakia exceeds 430,000 km, and major
400 in the USSR. Moreover, the quality of trucks routes have the capacity to handle nearly 120,000 tons
assigned has shown a substantial improvement over the per day. Movement of materiel to a distance less than
same period. The holders of this view agree that there 300 km probably would be made by road. For move-
have been some reports of vehicle breakdowns in truck ment over greater distances, both rail and road are
pools in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland, likely to be used. Movement along the road and rail
but would not characterize these reports as wide- nets could be substantially reduced if refined petroleum
spread. Finally, the holders of this view point out that were moved by the pipeline of the Communist Euro-
the implication in paragraph 219 that the GSFG pean economic community (CEMA). Conversion of
would require commandeered or mobilized trucks is the pipeline from crude to refined products would
not supported by fact. They point out that since the take about one week; thereafter the system would be
simultaneous lift capability of the GSFG motor trans- capable of delivering 55,000 tons of petroleum daily to
port brigade exceeds anticipated daily requirements, both East Germany and Czechoslovakia. There is some
the lift capability of this organization in normal evidence that Pact logistic planners intend to convert
resupply operations would be adequate to compensate the pipeline in time of war, and it appears to be a
for normal wartime attrition feasible contingency measure to supplement existing
222. The Soviets are increasing the lift capabilities petroleum supply methods.
of their motor transport units by introducing a new
truck, the KamAZ-5320. This vehicle, with an estimated 226. Pact movement plans are not available to us
trck te amZ-32.hi ehcl, it a etiatd but, according to a study by the Defense Intelligence
capacity of 8 metric tons, has a 60-percent greater lift
capacity than the Ural-375, which it is augmenting in Agency, 29 divisons, plus support and supplies, could
some motor transport units in the forward area. be moved over the rail and highway system from the
western USSR to Central Europe in some 11 to 14
223. The Soviets also have developed a number of days. These findings are consistent with the judgment
heavy lift regiments using the MAZ-537 prime mover elsewhere in this Estimate (chapter IV, paragraph 21)
I1-66
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.