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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Top | .
Table II-13
Selected Warsaw Pact CW Agents and Weapon Systems
Artillery Free-Fall
Munitions Bombs
(size in (weight in Rocket Missle
Agent millimeters) kilograms) Warheads Warheads
(entry indicates availability of delivery system for agent specified)
Nerve
Thickened Soman ...................... - 100 FROG Scud
Sarin ........................ . . 122, 152 100, 250 BM-21 -
BM-24
Vesicant (Blister)
M ustard ................................... 122, 152 - - -
Thickened Mustard 122, .152 - --
Thickened Lewisite .................... 122, 152 - - -
Mustard/Lewisite Mixture .......... - 100, 250, - -
500, 1,000
1,500
Thickened/Mustard/Lewisite
Mixture ........... ............. - 250, 1,000 -
Systemic
tHydrogen Cyanide ...................... - 250, 500 BM-21 -
BM-24
the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the open and
would be attacked with nonpersistent CW agents to contaminate materiel and selected areas of terrain,
delivered by tube and rocket artillery and aerial especially on the axes of defensive operations. Ground-
bombs. Some Soviet chemical bombs are fitted with a burst of thickened blister agent munitions would be
fuse designed to provide optimum area coverage. used to achieve very heavy contamination of smaller
191. Warsaw Pact military writings indicate that areas. Chemical mines are usually filled with blister
fragmentation-chemical shells, which disseminate the agents and would be used alone or interspersed with
liquid agent fill almost entirely as vapor and aerosol in antitank or antipersonnel mines.
order to cause casualties quickly through 'inhalation, CBR Training and Equipment
are to be used with unthickened GB, mustard, and
probably GD. Thickened GD is also probably filled in 193. Soviet research in chemical, biological, and
aerial airburst bombs and missile warheads to produce radiological warfare has been extensive. The Soviets
casualties from the toxic "rain" effect. Warheads for possess large quantities of a wide range of equipment,
the FROG and Scud filled with thickened GD and much of which is of recent design, for use in a toxic
fused to burst at high altitude are planned to achieve a environment. Extensive training in its use is integral to
casualty rate of up to 80 percent among unprotected military exercises for all Soviet and NSWP ground,
personnel naval, and air forces. These same training procedures
and protective equipment would enable the Soviets to
operate on the offensive as well as on the defensive
[ he casualties would1e caused primarily within the toxic areas of combat. Equipment and
by skin penetration of the toxic, thickened GD "rain." training for chemical protection are combined with
that for biological or radiological protection, and the
192. Rocket artillery would be used to blanket large special CBR troops are responsible for these three
areas with the nonpersistent agents GB and hydrogen types of activity. At present there are about 60,000
cyanide, the latter where immediate occupation of the personnel and 8,000 decontamination and 4,000 recon-
area after the attack was desired. The blister agents, naissance vehicles assigned to specialized Pact CBR
mustard and mustard-lewisite mixtures, are contained defense units. If all current, active Pact ground, air,in aerial and ground munitions fused to airburst for and naval units were brought up to full strength, the
maximum area contamination with the toxic liquid number of Pact CBR personnel would double.
11-60

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.