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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
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Table II-13
Selected Warsaw Pact CW Agents and Weapon Systems
Artillery Free-Fall
Munitions Bombs
(size in (weight in Rocket Missle
Agent millimeters) kilograms) Warheads Warheads
(entry indicates availability of delivery system for agent specified)
Nerve
Thickened Soman ...................... - 100 FROG Scud
Sarin ........................ . . 122, 152 100, 250 BM-21 -
BM-24
Vesicant (Blister)
M ustard ................................... 122, 152 - - -
Thickened Mustard 122, .152 - --
Thickened Lewisite .................... 122, 152 - - -
Mustard/Lewisite Mixture .......... - 100, 250, - -
500, 1,000
1,500
Thickened/Mustard/Lewisite
Mixture ........... ............. - 250, 1,000 -
Systemic
tHydrogen Cyanide ...................... - 250, 500 BM-21 -
BM-24
the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the open and
would be attacked with nonpersistent CW agents to contaminate materiel and selected areas of terrain,
delivered by tube and rocket artillery and aerial especially on the axes of defensive operations. Ground-
bombs. Some Soviet chemical bombs are fitted with a burst of thickened blister agent munitions would be
fuse designed to provide optimum area coverage. used to achieve very heavy contamination of smaller
191. Warsaw Pact military writings indicate that areas. Chemical mines are usually filled with blister
fragmentation-chemical shells, which disseminate the agents and would be used alone or interspersed with
liquid agent fill almost entirely as vapor and aerosol in antitank or antipersonnel mines.
order to cause casualties quickly through 'inhalation, CBR Training and Equipment
are to be used with unthickened GB, mustard, and
probably GD. Thickened GD is also probably filled in 193. Soviet research in chemical, biological, and
aerial airburst bombs and missile warheads to produce radiological warfare has been extensive. The Soviets
casualties from the toxic "rain" effect. Warheads for possess large quantities of a wide range of equipment,
the FROG and Scud filled with thickened GD and much of which is of recent design, for use in a toxic
fused to burst at high altitude are planned to achieve a environment. Extensive training in its use is integral to
casualty rate of up to 80 percent among unprotected military exercises for all Soviet and NSWP ground,
personnel naval, and air forces. These same training procedures
and protective equipment would enable the Soviets to
operate on the offensive as well as on the defensive
[ he casualties would1e caused primarily within the toxic areas of combat. Equipment and
by skin penetration of the toxic, thickened GD "rain." training for chemical protection are combined with
that for biological or radiological protection, and the
192. Rocket artillery would be used to blanket large special CBR troops are responsible for these three
areas with the nonpersistent agents GB and hydrogen types of activity. At present there are about 60,000
cyanide, the latter where immediate occupation of the personnel and 8,000 decontamination and 4,000 recon-
area after the attack was desired. The blister agents, naissance vehicles assigned to specialized Pact CBR
mustard and mustard-lewisite mixtures, are contained defense units. If all current, active Pact ground, air,in aerial and ground munitions fused to airburst for and naval units were brought up to full strength, the
maximum area contamination with the toxic liquid number of Pact CBR personnel would double.
11-60

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.