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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
Despite these advantages the G- and H-class subma- agent production and may still be engaged in this
rines have several limitations. Both classes are about 20 activity. The nature of CW agent production is such
years old. The patrols of the diesel-powered G-class that positive identification of production facilities
submarine are limited by fuel requirements. The within an industrial chemical complex is virtually
nuclear-powered H-class submarines are relatively impossible without knowledgeable human sources.
noisy and thus more vulnerable to detection, and their 187. There is no question that the Soviets and some
nuclear power plants are not as reliable as those on East Europeans either have produced or are capable of
more modern nuclear submarines, producing toxic agents, inasmuch as their chemical
184. The SLBMs of D- and Y-class submarines plants are already handling most of the raw materials
could also be used to attack peripheral targets. required to produce these agents. We believe that the
Soviet chemical industry can easily handle production
sufficient to maintain current Soviet reserves of bulk
chemical agents, plus whatever additional quantities
are required to replace agents consumed by training
-__._and deterioration. The quantities involved are rela-
The Soviets tively small, and large-scale production of agents
almost certainly have developed contingency plans for would not be necessary.
use of the SS-N-6 on some Y-class submarines against
targets on the periphery of the USSR. The relative Stockpile
importance of the peripheral attack role for these 188. At the present time there are 10 major installa-
modern SSBNs would probably depend largely upon tions in the UsR bie to be asso ith the
thedcircumstances leading uip to a conflict and the tosin the USSR believed to be associated with the
the ircmstnceleaingup o aconfictandthe storage of CW toxic agents, filled munitions, or both.
scenario for its initiation. We cannot, therefore, pre- Atlack of evidence e le minin si or
dict the number of units that might be employed for A lack of evidence precludes determining the size or
such missions. We continue to believe, however, that composition of. the Soviet CW agent stockpile, how-
the D- and Y-class force as a whole is dedicated ever. Because we know that the Soviets have devel-
primarily to missions against US targets. oped a range of toxic agents and delivery systems, and
tactical doctrine for their use, and because we have
E. Forces for Chemical Warfare fragmentary evidence on some field depots for chemi-
cal storage, we do not doubt that they have operational
185. The Soviets have had a broad-based R&D stocks, including some in Eastern Europe. We believe
program for chemical warfare (CW) since World War these include nerve agents such as GB (sarin) and GD
II, and they remain in the forefront in CW technical (thickened and unthickened soman), as well as older
knowledge. Pact forces generally are well equipped types of agents such as hydrogen cyanide, mustard,
and trained to operate in a CBR (chemical, biological, and the mustard-lewisite mixture. Research relating to
radiological) environment. Pact ground forces have a incapacitating agents, such as the hallucinogen BZ and
variety of systems capable of delivering chemical agents closely related to it, is also continuing, but there
agents which would enable them to cover large areas is no evidence that any agents of this type are
of the combat zone from the forward edge of the stockpiled.
battle area to at least 300 kilometers beyond. Air-
dropped munitions provide the potential for large- 189. Soviet systems for the dissemination of toxic
scale strikes against NATO, especially against enemy CW agents provide a capability to attack designated
nuclear delivery targets. Naval weapon systems also targets in almost any tactical or weather situation. The
provide a theater chemical warfare capability against means of delivery include bulk-fill artillery and mor-
ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple rail- and tube-launched rockets,
sites, and amphibious landing operations. chemical mines; warheads for free rockets over ground
(FROGs), tactical ballistic missiles, and possibly cruise
Production missiles; aerial bombs and possibly spray tanks; and
186. No facilities in Warsaw Pact countries have naval chemical munitions. (See table II-13.)
been positively identified as currently producing toxic 190. The variety of Soviet chemical agents provides
CW agents in militarily significant quantities, al- a capability for attacking protected and unprotected
though several in the USSR and in some of the other troops in the open and for producing a residual
NSWP countries have historical associations with CW contamination on equipment and terrain. Targets in
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.