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/specialCollection/MissileGap/1961/1961-04-25.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency · 101 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.

  • p. 15 …At the test range, the Soviets have fol- lowed a generally similar pattern in the de…
  • p. 33 …We believe that at the present time, the Soviets are well advanced in a program to…
  • p. 57 …the Soviet state of the art in re-entry techniques at that time. Subsequent advances in…
  • p. 58 …specific time designated well in advance, i.e., maximum readiness. The ready missile rate is expected…
  • p. 66 …program for developing advanced ASW weap- ons systems exists. The USSR has the basic scientific and…
  • p. 80 …technological advances in sev- eral key areas. 163.The Soviets are aware of the advantages offered…
  • p. 81 …The caliber of the Soviet work to date indicates that the USSR is among world leaders…
  • p. 82 …the vehicle should permit the Soviets to effect rendezvous with an earth orbiting vehicle. 173.Advanced…
  • p. 91 …We estimate the SS-6, and probably the SS-5, will probably utilize fixed sites. The…
  • p. 93 …The Academy of Sciences provides supplementary proposals and re- search programs designed to advance the state…
Summary Table II
PROBABLE SOVIET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE SYSTEMS •
Arbitrary
Reference
Designation
Initial
Opera-
tional
Capability
Date b
Guidance
Opera-
tional
Accu-
racy
(CEP
in ft.)
Maxi-
mum
Wm--
head •
(lb. and
type)
Approx-
imate
Grossweight
(163')
AtacaArr
It I .: NI ARKS •Compatible Aircraft Attack Capabil-
ity Range II-1/1. d
AA-1
'
AA-2
AA-3
1955-1959
1955-1956
..
1958
R a d a r b e a in
rider.
Infrared homing...
Semiactive radar
homing.•
20
10
15
30 HE
25 HE
26 HE
130
175
200
FARMER E
FRESCO D and E
FITTER B
FISHPOT.
FLASHLIGHT
FAGOT •
FRESCO
FARMER
FITTER
FISHBED
FLASHLIGHT
FISHPOT
FRESCO D and E....
FARMER E
FITTER B
FLASHLIGHT
FISHPOT
Rear quarter....
... do
do
do
'360'
Tail pursuit
do
do
do
do
do
do
Rear quarter
do
do
Rear and beam
do
2 .k,' (tail) 5
(head-on).
1:n.m. to 4 n.m.
3 (tail) 6 (beam).
A II - w e a t h c r .
Soviet designa-
lion "ShNI 122.
Limited to clear air
mass' condi-
tions. Range
varies with alti-
tilde and with
the target deter-
mination capa-
bility of fighter.
All-weather.
OTHER: Soviet development of improved air-to-air missiles over the next few years is contingent upon trends in Soviet fighter and Western bomber forces
and in Soviet surface-to-air missile defenses (see paragraph 68, page 17).
• We evaluate this program as "probable" with varying degrees of confidence concerning detailed characteristics. Eac:i missile listed will probably go through
various stages of development which are not necessarily reflected in this table.
b The date when the first operational unit is trained and equipped with a few missiles and launchers.
• Warhead includes the explosive device and its associated fusing and firing mechanism.
Range is here defined as the distance between launching aircraft and target at the instant of missile launch.
• Speed for these missiles has not been indicated on the chart. Mach 2 plus the speed of the launching aircraft is consid( red reasonable speed for all the missiles
estimated.
r Clear air mass is here defined as absence of clouds and precipitation between missile and target. The term is equally applicable to day or night operation!.
In addition, an infrared system is also degraded by bright background such as white clouds and attack angles close to the sun.

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.