Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Low Earth orbit”3 pages
•• 44 d00278407 the exploration of the lunar surface. The size and weight of this vehicle, which the So- viets call a Tankette, would require a launch- ing booster much larger than now available. Its soft landing, using an advanced launching vehicle of about five million pounds thrust probably could not be accomplished before about 1965 (see paragraph 157, page 41). 172. Manned Earth Orbiting Flight. The So- viets have now successfully demonstrated their capability to orbit and recover a manned earth satellite. Additional missions of this type piobably Wl11 be undertaken duiirigth next year or so. We believe that future manned re-entry vehicles will be made more maneuverable in order to exploit the advan- tages which glide-type vehicles offer over the capsule-type vehicles currently being used. A manned glide-type recovery vehicle could be demonstrated, at the earliest, during 1963. We believe that by 1963 the Soviets could with conventional propellants have the capability to make limited angular or altitude changes in the 'path of manned earth satellite vehicles outside the atmosphere. As the payload-in- orbit capability increases, the capability to make repeated path changes can be expected. In about 1965, increased maneuverability of the vehicle should permit the Soviets to effect rendezvous with an earth orbiting vehicle. 173.Advanced earth orbiting space stations suitable for sustaining life and for performing scientific or military functions for extended periods of time (several months or more) are believed to be a part of the Soviet program. These stations would have to be able to keep their positions as well as make minor adjust- ments in position as desired. We estimate that a large, long-lived space platform weigh- ing on the order of 50-100 tons could be established about 1968-1970, barring the ex- istence of unforeseen space hazards which preclude it. 174. Manned Lunar Flights. Contingent upon successes with manned earth satellites and the development of large booster vehicles, the Soviets are believed capable of a manned circumlunar flight with reasonable chance of success in 1966; of recoverable manned lunar satellites in 1967; and of lunar landings cult; teLUrn to earth by about 1970. Mesc are all estimated to be the earliest possible dates. Offensive Space Weapons 175. There is no evidence that the Soviets are developing offensive space wezspons. How- ever, some of the Soviet achievements in space would be necessary initial steps in the devel- opment of space weapons, and the Soviets have undoubtedly undertaken studies and re- search in this area. Soviet success in space as exemplified by the Venus probe, the most recent successful orbiting and recovery of a man, and the capability to orbit still heavier payloads over the next few years, leads to the conclusion that the Soviets are technically - capable of achieving an orbital bombardment vehicle toward the end of the period of this estimate. Moreover, the Soviet leaders might seek to derive some psychological or political advantage by hinting or even boasting that the USSR had a significant capability in space weapons. The launching of vehicles for which the Soviets claimed a military capability or other Soviet arhievements in space could lend credence to such claims. TOP SECRET-
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.