Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Kapustin Yar”16 pages
1 000278407 > T O-P -S-E-C-R E T 43 pulsion systems." Although none of the esti- mated missions require the use of this type of propulsion, we believe that basic research i s under way in this area. However, we be- lieve that the first test flights of prototype electrical or plasma propulsion systems in space are not likely to occur until late in the decade. 165.The Soviets are carrying out a broad pro- gram of research applicable to the develop- ment of extremely long range space telecom- munications and navigation systems. This r°,--)r^h includes the f..1,'s ef infcrr.^..- ti"n theory, radio wave propagation, maser and other low noise signal amplifying devices, an- tenna theory and engineering, radio astron- omy, high power transmitting tubes, and solid state physics. The caliber of the Soviet work to date indicates that the USSR is among world leaders in such specialities as radio astronomy and solid state physics. We be- lieve that the USSR will be able to satisfy its requirements for communications and navi- gation of space vehicles, despite its apparent recent difficulty in maintaining continuous communications with the Venus probe. 166. Since 1955, the USSR has intensified its physiological research on the control of en- vironmental stress factors. This work con- cerns the functional characteristics of the human operator in space vehicles and includes research on the effects of acceleration, weight- lessness, oxygen saturation, vibration and noise, and confinement over prolonged periods. Research directed toward the development of a completely closed life-support system prob- ably is also underway. The USSR is also con- ducting active research on methods for pro- tecting man against the radiation hazards of prolonged flight within and beyond the Van Allen belts. Soviet Capabilities for Specific Future Missions 167. Exploration of Cis-Lunar Space. The Soviets probably have obtained sufficient data '' Such systems are characterized by very low thrust but high specific impulse. They are useless for planetary take-off and landing maneuvers but show great promise for interorbital maneuvering and space travel. from their own and US experiments about the near earth (0-1,000 miles) space environ- ment to allow them to begin bio-astronautic tests with organisms and animals in the cis- lunar region in the near future. The So- viets have already conducted some experi- mentation to lunar and interplanetary dis- tances, and we expect a more thorough explo- ration of these regions. 168. Unmanned Earth Satellites. Earth satellite vehicles offer significant advances over conventional techniques for acquiring information on furce deployffient and map- ping, for weather surveillance, and for com- munications. The USSR probably could have developed and used such devices, but has not done so. 169.As the US program for reconnaissance and early warning satellites develops, we be- lieve that the Soviet Union will try to find ways to destroy them, possibly with counter- satellites. In view of the cost and techno- logical difficulties to be overcome, we estimate that the first Soviet capability using un- manned orbiting vehicles to disable US satel- lites could occur sometime after the middle of the decade. (Other Soviet capabilities against satellites are discussed in paragraph 63.) 170. Unmanned Lunar Flight. We believe the USSR will place an instrumented satellite into orbit around the moon in the near future. An instrumented lunar soft landing probably can be made during 1961, although such a feat would require not only a retrorocket, but more accurate guidance and more refined attitude orientation than that tested on Lunik III (October 1959). In order to col- lect data after a landing, the Soviets might use instrumentation packages similar to their automatic radio weather stations which are released from aircraft. 171.As landing techniques are improved, larger payloads including rocket systems with terminal control for a soft landing on the moon as well as lunar restart and launch capa- bilities will probably be developed. Soviet statements indicate that the USSR is also designing an unmanned mobile vehicle for TOP CECRIST
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.