Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Low Earth orbit”3 pages
C00278407 TOP CECIIDT' 42 shchev has alluded to plans for orbiting pay- loads of this magnitude. 158. Structures. The design and construc- tion of the Luniks and the Sputniks, as dis- played or otherwise publicized by the Soviets, indicate that relatively heavy structural de- sign and fabrication techniques are used in the design of their space vehicles. The avail- ability of high thrust launching vehicles has permitted the use of these heavy structures and of equipment which is probably not minia- turized. This in turn provides some benefit with respect to Llie puixni.iai reliability ofd a space system and its instrumentation. 159. Re-entry. In the area of re-entry, the Soviets appear to have made major strides dur- ing 1960 and 1961 in both ICBM nosecones and space vehicles. The Soviets have demon- strated that they now have adequate materials and techniques to protect space vehicles dur- ing re-entry into the atmosphere and to ac- complish successful landings. 160. Payload Instruments. The Soviets have developed and successfully demonstrated ex- tensive and complex instrumentation for their earth satellite and lunar space vehicles. Because of the USSR's large payload capa- bility, we do not believe miniaturization has been a prime requirement for Soviet space instrumentation design to date. This has been supported by analysis of the space equip- ment which has been publicly displayed by the Soviets. However, as mission require- ments increase, the Soviets will be required to attend more to the question of component miniaturization. Improvement of the photo- graphic system used in Lunik III is expected to continue and similar techniques could be utilized in weather and possibly photographic reconnaissance satellites and in photography of other planets. 161. Tracking and Surveillance Systems. The extensive system used by the Soviets to track space vehicles, including optical observatories, radio telescopes, photographic stations, radars, radio direction-finders, and int6rferometers, appears to give them the capability for space tracking and surveillance from within their own borders. This capability is supplemented and extended mainly by ships at sea with some assistance from other Soviet Bloc and Western countries and from Soviet stations in the Antarctic. However, the Soviets lack the worldwide facilities available to the West. The recent effort to initiate negotiations for a tracking facility in Australia indicates a So- viet desire to extend their present system. We cannot estimate how many missions could be handled simultaneously; to date the Soviets have not demonstrated a capability for detailed tracking and readout on More than two objects at a time. Major Basic and Applied Research Areas 162. We have estimated that payloads on the order of 50-100 tons will become possible in the latter half of the decade. The missions which can then be accommodated would po- tentially be capable of prolonged flight and changes in flight path long after initial in- jection into space. However, such mission capabilities would require further extensive research and technological advances in sev- eral key areas. 163.The Soviets are aware of the advantages offered by nuclear rocket engines for space -- use, and very limited evidence indicates that they are engaged in nuclear rocket engine development. We estimate that the first static test firing of a prototype system for upper stage use or space maneuvering could be made as early as 1965, and that test flights could begin before 1970. 164.At present the small internal power re- quirements for space payloads are being met by the use of chemical batteries and solar cells. However, increased demands for elec- trical power are expected to arise in the 1965 to 1970 time period. Ecological life support systems will require greatly increased power, ,, and extremely heavy demands would be im- posed by electric or plasma propulsion sys- tems. These demands could be met by nu- clear power sources, and there is evidence of work being done in this field. The Soviets also recognize the propellant weight advan- tage afforded by electric and plasma space pro- TOP SECRET'
Not linked to a story yet.
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.