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/specialCollection/MissileGap/1961/1961-04-25.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency · 101 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.

  • p. 79 …The first attempt to launch a Venus probe succeeded in orbiting the earth satellite, Sputnik VII…
  • p. 81 …Unmanned Earth Satellites. Earth satellite vehicles offer significant advances over conventional techniques for acquiring information on…
  • p. 83 …Unmanned Earth Orbiting Flight: 15,000-20,000 pounds, low orbit Military satellites Communications Weather surveillance…
R E 41
Mars. In February 1961, the Soviets at-
tempted with Sputnik VII to launch a probe
toward Venus from an orbiting satellite, and
succeeded later in the month with Sputnik
VIII.
152. The reliability achieved in Soviet space
shots has been much lower than that of the
Soviet ICBM. Most space failures were ap-
parently caused by factors unique to the space
program, such as the addition of upper stages
to the basic booster and in some cases the re-
quirement to launch at stipulated times. The
Soviets have achieved i4 uccessful la.unchings.
of space vehicles., but we believe that there
have been nearly as many launchings which
resulted in failures. Moreover, several of the
vehicles which were successfully launched ap-
parently did not function as planned. Lunik
I, , which was prohably intended to hit. the
moon, missed by a wide margin and went into
orbit around the sun. The recovery system
contained in Sputniks IV and VI failed to
function successfully. The first attempt to
launch a Venus probe succeeded in orbiting
the earth satellite, Sputnik VII from which
the probe was to be launched, but failed
during injection into the trajectory towards
Venus.
153.The Soviets desire to accomplish dra-
matic "firsts" is probably another factor in
the relatively low reliability of their space
shots. They have undertaken some very
challenging operations, and in their lunar
and planetary shots have shown a tendency
to move on to the next challenge once a given
type of operation is successfully demonstrated.
This approach has contributed to the impres-
sive Soviet record in pioneering space achieve-
ments. There is evidence from public and
private statements, however, that some Soviet
scientists have been concerned lest political
goals interfere with sound scientific progress.
Launching Facilities
154.Both of the major Soviet ballistic missile
test ranges have been involved in the space
program. Since 1954, about 25 vertical firings
have been detected at the Kapustin Yar range.
According to the Soviets, the purposes of such
firings have included upper atmosphere re-
search, sodium vapor ejection, photographing
the earth's cloud cover, and space biology in-
cluding the recovery of live animals. All
launchings of earth satellites and space probes
have taken place at Tyuratam. Although the
majority of the launchings here have involved
ICBM tests, there are indications that Tyu-
ratam was designed with the space program
clearly in mind. The facilities at launch
areas "A" and "B" are of a size and design
which could probably handle vehicles with
thrusts on the order of several million pounds.
Tyuratam should thus be able to sat:sfy
ground handling and launching facility re-
quirements for much of the Soviet space pro-
gram over the next 10 years.
155. Propulsion. All earth satellites and
lunar vehicles, with the possible exception of
Sputniks I and II, are believed to have used
the same basic launching vehicle as the ICBM.
One additional upper stage was added for the
launching of the Lunilcs and Sputniks IV, V,
VI, IX, X, and XI. Two upper stages were
apparently added to the basic booster in the
successful Venus shot—one of them to place
Sputnik VIII into orbit around the earth and
the other to power that portion of the satel-
lite which entered a trajectory towards the
planet.
156.The data available on the Venus shot
indicates that with one additional stage the
Soviet ICBM booster placed about 14,000
pounds into orbit around the earth. This is
the largest payload the Soviets have succeeded
in orbiting. We expect additional increases
in launching vehicle capability through
further improvements in staging and the use
of improved fuels, which could increase the
orbital payload to about 25,000 pounds in
about 1962.
157.A new rocket engine, which may deliver
1 to 2 V2 million pounds of thrust, could be
available for first flight in about 1963. Intelli-
gence on a new rocket engine test facility near
Kuybyshev indicates that the Soviets are ac-
tively developing such an engine. Clustering
of two to five of these engines, which could
probably be achieved in 1965-1970, would re-
sult in a booster capable of orbiting payloads
of 50 to 100 tons. On several occasions, Khru-

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.