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/specialCollection/MissileGap/1961/1961-04-25.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency · 101 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.

  • p. 55 …into the Pacific Ocean through the use of' four Sibir-class instrumentation ships. 100. The Tyuratam…
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32
"Komar" class) to carry two similar struc-
tures is known to be underway. A defector
has reported that patrol craft are being
equipped with "rockets" to be used to attack
ships. We cannot determine whether these
launchers are designed for guided missiles or
free rockets. Effective range would not ex-
ceed the radar horizon.
139. There have been reports of the installa-
tion of both surface-to-surface and surface-to-
air missiles on one or two cruisers. Although
the reports indicate that tests have occurred,
Uje operational status of the system is not
clear. The surface-to-surface systems may be
essentially the same as those on the Krupnyy
class destroyer, and the surface-to-air systems
may be adaptations of the SA-2 or SA-3 land-
based types. There is no evidence of new
construction of cruisers designed to carry
guided missiles, nor do we believe that there
is an extensive program for the conversion of
existing cruisers.
Antiwbmarine Warfare Missile Systems
140.There is some evidence indicating that
a program for developing advanced ASW weap-
ons systems exists. The USSR has the basic
scientific and technical capabilities to de-
velop ASW missile systems and the required
detection and tracking equipment. Based on
requirements and our appreciation of the state
of the art, we estimate that the USSR may be
developing a missile for use in ASW. Assum-
ing that an active development progam has
been underway, we estimate that a ballistic-
launched depth bomb could be available for
use by surface ships with adequate detection
and tracking equipment in 1962-1964. Sim-
ilarly, a ballistic-launched homing torpedo to
be fired from a submarine could be operational
in 1963-1965. Such a missile could possibly
also be used against surface ship targets.
Submarine Launched Missile Systems
141. The first indication that the Soviets were
equipping their submarines with missiles was
provided by reports in 1955-1956 of "W" class
submarines equipped with hangar and launch-
er structures. It is probable that a few of
these submarines were converted to carry
subsonic cruise-type missiles for use against
land targets at ranges of 150 n.m. Sightings
of such submarines still occasionally occur,
but we doubt that this system is currently
operational.
142. We believe that the Soviets are develop-
ing a supersonic cruise missile with a range
of about 300 n.m. which is designed to be
launched from surfaced submarines. This
system could be operational this year. The
submarine for which this missile system was
designed has not yet been identified.
143. Since 1956 there have been several sight-
ings and photographs of modified "Z" class
submarines with enlarged sails. On the top
aft part of the sail are located two hatches,
which are seven feet in diameter (see Figure
32). There is no firm evidence that these
hatches cover missile tubes, but we believe that
these submarines have probably been modified
to carry and launch two ballistic missiles
(SS–N-4) each against land targets. Six
such "Z" class conversions have been identi-
fied in the Soviet fleets to date.
144. There is some uncertainty as to the range
of the missile employed by the modified "Z"
class submarine, although the evidence points
to the probability that these missiles are of
either 150 or 350 n.m. maximum range. The —
150 n.m. SCUD (SS-1) is the only known sur-
face-to-surface missile which uses storable
liquid propellants, and thus could be adapted
for use in a submarine. However, Khrushchev
has said the USSR possessed submarines carry-
ing a 600 km rocket (about 325 n.m.). Bal-
listic missiles have been test fired to 350 n.m.
range at Kapustin Yar for some years, and
we believe that a missile of this range could
be adapted for installation in a submarine.
145.Since mid-1958, 14 new construction long
range submarines, designated the "G" class,
have been identified (see Figure 33). This
submarine also has a large sail, much longer
than that of the converted "Z" class. There
are three pairs of fairing doors in the top
of the sail, which could cover a total of
three or four hatches of the type seen on
the converted "Z" class. We estimate that the
"G" class submarine probably is armed with
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.