Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Gray”1 page
C00278407 32 "Komar" class) to carry two similar struc- tures is known to be underway. A defector has reported that patrol craft are being equipped with "rockets" to be used to attack ships. We cannot determine whether these launchers are designed for guided missiles or free rockets. Effective range would not ex- ceed the radar horizon. 139. There have been reports of the installa- tion of both surface-to-surface and surface-to- air missiles on one or two cruisers. Although the reports indicate that tests have occurred, Uje operational status of the system is not clear. The surface-to-surface systems may be essentially the same as those on the Krupnyy class destroyer, and the surface-to-air systems may be adaptations of the SA-2 or SA-3 land- based types. There is no evidence of new construction of cruisers designed to carry guided missiles, nor do we believe that there is an extensive program for the conversion of existing cruisers. Antiwbmarine Warfare Missile Systems 140.There is some evidence indicating that a program for developing advanced ASW weap- ons systems exists. The USSR has the basic scientific and technical capabilities to de- velop ASW missile systems and the required detection and tracking equipment. Based on requirements and our appreciation of the state of the art, we estimate that the USSR may be developing a missile for use in ASW. Assum- ing that an active development progam has been underway, we estimate that a ballistic- launched depth bomb could be available for use by surface ships with adequate detection and tracking equipment in 1962-1964. Sim- ilarly, a ballistic-launched homing torpedo to be fired from a submarine could be operational in 1963-1965. Such a missile could possibly also be used against surface ship targets. Submarine Launched Missile Systems 141. The first indication that the Soviets were equipping their submarines with missiles was provided by reports in 1955-1956 of "W" class submarines equipped with hangar and launch- er structures. It is probable that a few of these submarines were converted to carry subsonic cruise-type missiles for use against land targets at ranges of 150 n.m. Sightings of such submarines still occasionally occur, but we doubt that this system is currently operational. 142. We believe that the Soviets are develop- ing a supersonic cruise missile with a range of about 300 n.m. which is designed to be launched from surfaced submarines. This system could be operational this year. The submarine for which this missile system was designed has not yet been identified. 143. Since 1956 there have been several sight- ings and photographs of modified "Z" class submarines with enlarged sails. On the top aft part of the sail are located two hatches, which are seven feet in diameter (see Figure 32). There is no firm evidence that these hatches cover missile tubes, but we believe that these submarines have probably been modified to carry and launch two ballistic missiles (SS–N-4) each against land targets. Six such "Z" class conversions have been identi- fied in the Soviet fleets to date. 144. There is some uncertainty as to the range of the missile employed by the modified "Z" class submarine, although the evidence points to the probability that these missiles are of either 150 or 350 n.m. maximum range. The — 150 n.m. SCUD (SS-1) is the only known sur- face-to-surface missile which uses storable liquid propellants, and thus could be adapted for use in a submarine. However, Khrushchev has said the USSR possessed submarines carry- ing a 600 km rocket (about 325 n.m.). Bal- listic missiles have been test fired to 350 n.m. range at Kapustin Yar for some years, and we believe that a missile of this range could be adapted for installation in a submarine. 145.Since mid-1958, 14 new construction long range submarines, designated the "G" class, have been identified (see Figure 33). This submarine also has a large sail, much longer than that of the converted "Z" class. There are three pairs of fairing doors in the top of the sail, which could cover a total of three or four hatches of the type seen on the converted "Z" class. We estimate that the "G" class submarine probably is armed with TOP CBCRBT
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.