Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Gray”1 page
C00278407 22 missile program. The system probably at- tained an initial operational capability in late 1958 or early 1959. C 91. C. jconsiderable evidence on the characteristics of the SS-4. The engine probably consists of a cluster of four combus- tion chambers as a single unit, with a total thrust of about 150,000 pounds. There is evi- dence that such an engine was under devel- opment in 1955. C .,we believe that the SS-4 employs a radio-inertial rather than an all-inertial guidance system, and that it has a CEP of about 1.5 n.m. Warhead weight is estimated at about 3,000 pounds. 92. In November 1960, C firing to the ICBM impact area on Kamchatka from the vicinity of Sovetskaya Gavan in the Far East Maritime Area, a distance of about 900 n.m.' This is the first evidence of the launching of this missile from an area other than the Kapustin Yar missile test range, and indicates that it probably is deployed in the Far East Maritime Area. There is also evi- dence that this missile and/or the SHYSTER is probably deployed in the Baltic and Car- pathian area. SS-5: 2,000 n.m. Ballistic Missile System 93. The latest Soviet surface-to-surface bal- listic missile to be tested is a missile (SS-5) with a nominal range of 2,000 n.m. The flight test program for the SS-5 missile was initiated in June 1960, and well over a score have been fired to date. C these operations were generally successfuL There have been differences between this pro- gram and the initial phases of other programs, especially in the firing rates. Other programs have begun with a short firing period followed by a lull of several months; whereas the launching tempo for this missile has been sustained. Based on the program to date, we believe this missile probably will become operational in late 1961 or in the first half of 1962. 94. Preliminary analysis E ....Indicates that this system is probably new, rather than a simple modification or lightened nosecone version of the 1,100 n.m. or other ballistic missile. The propuLdon sys- tem uses nonstorable liquid propellants, is single stage...,.. and may have two combustion chambers. 1. We esti- mate that the guidance system is radio/iner- tial. Wè.believe the accuracy will proba-Bly be at least as good as that of the SS-4 (1,100 n.m.), i.e., approximately 1.5 n.m. There are no firm data available to indicate the war- head weight, but we believe it would be be- tween 3,000 and 5,000 pounds, with 4,000 pounds as a reasonable planning figure. Future Systems 95. Considering Soviet technology, we believe that a wide range of improved characteristics could be incorporated in future ballistic mis- sile systems. We have no evidence as to spe- cific new systems which may become avail-_ able during the period of this estimate. How- ever, improvements which might be under- taken include: gross weights substantially less for a given payload than is the case for cur- rent missiles; improved guidance and control, including accuracy; storable liquid or solid fuels; and staging. In view of Soviet stand- ardization and stress on reliability, we do not anticipate a great proliferation of models. Close Support Missiles 96. Considering general Soviet progress in the missile field, we believe that the USSR could also have developed close support missiles for use by .the ground forces. We estimate that the Soviets probably now have operational a single stage missile with a range of about 5,000 to 6,000 yards, capable of delivering a shaped HE charge against tanks or other hard targets. It is possible that they have avail- able missiles with simplified inertial guidance components capable of delivering a 500 pound payload to ranges on the order of 5 to 15 n.m.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.