Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Pacific Ocean”1 page
C00278407 20 V. GROUND-LAUNCHED SURFACE-TO-. SURFACE MISSILE SYSTEMS (EXCEPT ICBM) 80. We have more extensive evidence on the development of ballistic missiles in the USSR than on any other Soviet missile program. There have been numerous reports from Ger- man returnees who participated in the early phases of this program. Continuing and valu- able information,C has been derived from observation of test ality at the Kapustir. Yar range; many hundreds of ballistic missile firings have been detected." The range itself has been extensively photo- graphed. This large body of evidence enables us to estimate the progress of the Soviet de- velopment programs with considerable assur- ance, although our confidence In the details varies. 81. The Soviet program, conducted at high priority since World War II, has been well- coordinated, extensively supported, and staffed with capable personnel. Missiles known to have been developed or to be under develop- ment at Kapustin Yar include those with maximum ranges of about 150 n.m., 350 n.m., 700 n.m., 1,100 n.m., and 2,000 n.m. The re- liability, accuracy, and other performance characteristics of these missiles are generally good. We believe that in the development of these systems maximum use has been made of proven components. The two active Soviet ballistic missile test ranges (Kapustin Yar for sinto 2,000 n.ro. range and Tyurat-.:n for ICBMs and space vehicles) probably have been mutually supporting with rezpect to component testing and experience. 82. The Kapustin Yar . range extends from the rangehead, located about 60 miles east of Stalinerad, generally to the east for ap- proximately 1,100 n.m. In 1960, a new line of fire was established to an impact area lo- cated about 2,000 n.m. from the rangehead and 500 n.m. west of Lake Baikal (see Figures 1 and 22). Testing of missiles began at Ka- pustin Yar in the fall of 1947. By the end "For a detailed account of ballistic missile ac- tivity at Kapustin Yar, see Annex F. "Soviet Mis- sile Test Range Activities." (Limited Distribution) of 1949, construction of permanent facilities had begun and the range probably had been extended to 350 n.ra. The continued growth of the range has been confirmed by photog- raphy which shows that facilities almost doubled between 1957 and 1959. For surface- to-surface missiles, there are now over half a dozen research and development iaunch- ing sites and more than 30 simpler sites used for troop training (see Figure 23). A bivouac area capable of accommodating 8,000 troops is located near these sites. 83. We believe that all short and medium range missiles (Up to 1,100 n.m. range) have been produced for several years. A former automotive plant in Dnepropetrovsk probably produces propulsion systems for the 350 n.m., 700 n.m., and 1,100 n.m. missiles, and it may also be engaged in airframe production and final assembly of these missiles. However, we cannot determine the mix of missiles or the magnitude of the production program cur- rently underway at this plant. No produc- tion facility can be associated with the 150 n.m. missile production. We have no evi- dence that the 2,000 n.m. missile is in pro- duction. Prototypes and test vehicles for this program probably are made at Plant No. 8&,- Kaliningrad, which has been the center for Soviet development of ballistic missiles since 1946. This plant probably also manufactured the initial lots of developmental 700 and 1,100 n.m. missiles and ICBMs, including boosters for space vehicles. 84. In general, we believe that for missiles with maximum ranges of 350 n.m. or less, HE, nuclear, or CW warheads will be employed depending upon nuclear stockpiles, missile accuracy, character of the target, and results desired." We estimate that for missiles with ranges of 700 n.m. and over, only nuclear war- heads will be employed, although we do not exclude the possibility of CW use in 700 n.m. missiles for certain limited purposes. We be- lieve that the .USSR is capable of developing techniques for missile dissemination of biolog- ical warfare (BW) agents, although we have "For a discussion of warhead yields, see Annex E. "Estimated Present Nuclear Warhead Capabilities." (Limited Distribution)
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.