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/specialCollection/MissileGap/1961/1961-04-25.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency · 101 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.

  • p. 15 …At the test range, the Soviets have fol- lowed a generally similar pattern in the de…
  • p. 33 …We believe that at the present time, the Soviets are well advanced in a program to…
  • p. 57 …the Soviet state of the art in re-entry techniques at that time. Subsequent advances in…
  • p. 58 …specific time designated well in advance, i.e., maximum readiness. The ready missile rate is expected…
  • p. 66 …program for developing advanced ASW weap- ons systems exists. The USSR has the basic scientific and…
  • p. 80 …technological advances in sev- eral key areas. 163.The Soviets are aware of the advantages offered…
  • p. 81 …The caliber of the Soviet work to date indicates that the USSR is among world leaders…
  • p. 82 …the vehicle should permit the Soviets to effect rendezvous with an earth orbiting vehicle. 173.Advanced…
  • p. 91 …We estimate the SS-6, and probably the SS-5, will probably utilize fixed sites. The…
  • p. 93 …The Academy of Sciences provides supplementary proposals and re- search programs designed to advance the state…
17E T
C00278407
III. AIR-TO-AIR MISSILES
64. Evidence on Soviet development o( air-to-
air missiles is largely limited to reports of
early experimental work on a radar beam rider
missile. According to German returnees who
had worked; on the project, this missile, desig-
nated "ShM" by the Soviets, was under de-
velopment in 1952. Testing of air-to-air mis-
siles probably is carried on at the Vladimi-
rovka test range (see paragraph 70).
65. In the past two years, we have received
considerable evidence on the deployment of
air-to-air missiles. Some Soviet fighters in
the USSR and East Germany are believed to
be equipped with a radar beam rider missile
and to have engaged in operational training.
Missiles using infrared guidance principles
probably are also operationally deployed in
the USSR There is good evidence that Euro-
pean Satellite air forces are being equipped
with the beam rider missile, and there are
some indications of the introduction of air-
to-air missiles into the air force of. Commu-
„isi (Mina.
Thc brain ride; missile. probably is now
standard armament for the FARMER E fight-
er. This aircraft may also be equipped with
infrared homing missiles for use in clear
weather. There are indications that some of
the new Soviet fighter types—FITTER, and
possibly FISHBED C and FISHPOT—are
armed with air-to-air missiles. The type of
missile has not been determined.
67. We estimate that the USSR probably now
has three air-to-air missile systems available
for operational use:
a. AA-] (Soviet .designation "ShM-122")—
This radar beam rider is probably an improved
version of the original "ShM” missile. It has
a range ot 2.5 n.m. and is limited to use with
suitably modified all-weather fighters. Op-
erational limitations will probably cause this
missile to phase out after the next few years.
b. AA-2.--A short range infrared homing
missile limited to tail attack under clear air
mass conditions. It is usable with most in-
terceptors including day fighters. Its range
varies from one n.m. with day fighters to about
four n.m. with all-weather fighters.
c. AA-3—On the basis of requirements,
early German reports, and Soviet technical
capability, we believe that the Soviets at one
time had under development a semiactive
radar homing missile with a range of about
three to six n.m. for use with all-weather
fighters. We estimate that such a system is
now operational, but there is no evidence of
its deployment.
68. Soviet .development of improved air-to-air
missiles over the next few years is contingent
upon trends in Soviet fighter and Western
oomber forces and in Soviet surface-to-ail
missile defenses. improvements could include
more sophisticated guidanct-, lunge; range.
;Ind iarger payloads (including nuclear). On;
present estimates of the nuclear weapon:
available in the Soviet stockpile do not incl ude
a warhead of a size and weight suitable for
air-to-air missiles, although the possibility
cannot be excluded that the Soviets have de-
veloped a warhead for such use.'° The need
to safeguard the pilot from nuclear effects
would require a missile of considerably longer
range than any estimated to be now availzWle.
'Clear air mass: Absence of clouds and precipita-
tion between missile and target. The terrr% is
equally.applicable to day or night operations. In
addition, an infrared system is also degraded by
bright background such as while clouds and attack
angles close to the sun.
"Annex E. "Estimated Present Nuclear Warhead
Capabilities." (Limited Distribution)

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.