Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
“Kapustin Yar”16 pages
1"-e-P-8-E-e-R-E-T-- 12 Not. considering travel time, we estimate that about four hours is required to take down or to set up the equipment at a site. Mobility exercises have been observed in East Germany. 46. In view of the widespread deployment of the SA-2 system and the potentialities for further improvement, we consider it very un- likely that the Soviets will develop an entirely new system to improve their capabilities against aircraft and air-to-surface missiles. Rather, we estimate that the Soviets will prob- ably improve the SA-2 to increase its range to say 30-35 n.m., improve its ability to engage small, fast targets at high altitudes, and en- hance its ECCM capabilities. Research and development work for this purpose may be underway at Sary Shagan or Kapustin Yar, and we believe that modifications incorporat- ing improvements in the system could begin to appear this year. Low Altitude System 47. A surface-to-air missile system designed to engage targets at low altitudes has prob- ably been under development by the Soviets for two or three years. Photography of Ka- pustin Yar in late 1959 revealed a test area (see Figure 14) which contained two sites of a new type, each having four launch pads. One site, which was probably used for R and D, was complete and occupied, while the other was in the final stages of construction. The lack of revetments around the sites would allow the launchers to be trained at a low angle of elevation. Moreover, the loca- tion of the guidance radar on a tower indicates its design for use against targets at low altitudes. At least one of the R and D launchers contained two missile-like objects about 20 feet long. The site pattern suggests that the missiles are carried on a transporter (possibly tracked) which backs up to the launcher for transfer of the missiles. The missile is believed to employ semiactive radar homing all the way as a guidance system. It is probably powered by a solid propellant en- gine of the integral sustainer-booster type. . 48. This system, designated SA-3, probably will become operational in 1961. We estimate that it will have a minimum altitude capa- bility of about 50 feet under optimum siting conditions, a maximum altitude capability of 40,000-60,000 feet, a maximum range of 12-15 n.m., a 20 foot CEP, and a 300 pound HE or nuclear payload.° The system probably will be mobile, and thus suitable for defense of field forces as well as fixed targets. It prob- ably will employ a continuous wave radar for target tracking. The acquisition radar has not yet been identified, but existing radars have a potential for use with this system. The _ SA-3 system probably will be deployed so as to supplement existing SA-2 defenses. Estimated payload weight is based upon analysis of photography and the estimated availability of a compatible nuclear warhead. TOP f.;BCRET
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.