Department of State Inr Briefing Note- June 12, 1968

shootings but more generalized focus has been the GOB-US economic relations. The criticisms have focused on US aid policies and the charge that the US is dumping its tin supplies in order to depress the Bolivian market. The assertions of babid nationalism are taking place in a political context in which GOB is unable to resolve the lengthy urban teachers strike; the reopening of natural antagonism between the military and civilian sectors; evidence of insecurity in the armed forces; and rumors of coup plotting in the military.

Embassy Comment: With these factors in mind, the Embassy does not discount the possibility that Barrientos will feel himself compelled, perhaps at an early date, to attempt to align himself with elements of unconstructive nationalist left, alienating himself from the US and its policies. This process will be accelerated to the extent that he becomes convinced that the US has abandoned him and that survival of his regime is immediately at stake.

INR/RAR Comment: Although the regime's concern over coup plotting may be somewhat exaggerated, the strength of the Barrientos Government has weakened considerably since the post "Che" Guevara euphoria. Continuing economic problems and growing unrest in some political and labor sectors form the basis for the current discontent, and the possibility that some group within the military may take advantage of the situation to move against Barrientos cannot be ruled out. However, Barrientos has shown his ability to survive similar crises before and probably still commands considerable within the all important military.