Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Transportation Scope and Coverage The transportation sector includes enterprises en- gaged in the transportation of freight, passengers, and associated activities by rail, sea, inland water, auto- mobile, air, oil and gas pipeline, urban electric transit, timber rafting, tug service, loading and unloading services, and maintenance of highways (Ukazaniya, pp. 742-745). Our index is a composite of 16 physical series of various types of freight and passenger transportation, aggregated with 1970 revenue weights. The procedure is similar to that used by N. M. Kaplan, Soviet Transport and Communications Output Indexes, 1928-62, Research Memorandum 4264-PR and Sup- plement, Santa Monica, Ca1if., the Rand Corporation, 1964 and 1965. Comparable results for 1950-63 given by Kaplan and the index derived here are nearly identical. The approach is also comparable to that taken by Kendrick to obtain an output index for transportation as part of an investigation of longrun productivity trends in the United States (John W. Kendrick, Postwar Productivity Trends in the United States, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973, pp. 186-193). The US GNP accounts also use a gross output index, but one which is primarily deflated current-price data. The coverage of the index is incomplete. Omitted entirely are timber rafting, road maintenance, tug service, and activities of independent enterprises en- gaged in loading and unloading; employment in such omitted activities is estimated to have been about 10 percent of total transport employment in 1970. A special problem arises with respect to freight hauled by trucks. Two physical series are published in the Narkhoz. One relates to common carriers only and the other to total truck haulage in the economy. Most of the trucking activity done by nontransport enterprises is believed to be short-haul work in con- nection with the current operations of the parent enterprise. This type of activity is considered part of the sectors to which the parent enterprise belongs in the US accounts and, therefore, the physical series relating to common carriers only is used here. This results in a lower weight for the truck index, but a higher growth rate. Total transportation revenue is calculated as the sum of freight and passenger revenue. Freight revenue is calculated as the sum of the revenue estimated for each of seven modes—rai1, sea, inland water, truck, oil pipeline, air, and gas pipeline. The revenue for each mode is calculated as the product of a physical measure and a 1970 average revenue value. Passenger revenue is calculated as the sum of the revenue estimated for each of nine modes—rai1, sea, inland water, bus, air, tram, trolley bus, subway, and taxi. The passenger index is virtually the same as the transportation component of the consumption index; its construction is described by Schroeder and Denton (JEC, Consumption). The only difference is that business travel expenses are not deducted for the sector-of-origin index. Weights The weights used to aggregate the seven freight subindexes are 1970 average revenue rates per ton- kilometer (tkm) (for gas pipelines, average revenue per cubic meter of gas transported). The weights and their sources are as follows: Mode Average Rate (kopecks) Source Rail 0.400 per ton- kilometer (tkm) Transport i svyaz ', p. 1 1 1. W Sea 0.263 per tkm Ibid, p. 1_5_1. Wig Inland water 0.418 per tkm Ibid, p. 186. V___ Truck 7.05 per tkm Ibid, pp. 222, 251. G Oil pipeline 0.123 per tkm Ibid, p. 203 with 28- percent profit markup added. _ flir 15.63 per tkm See text. Gas pipeline 0.258 per cubic meter R. D. Margulov et a1, Razvitiya gazovoy pro- myshlennosti, Moscow, Nedra, 1976, p. 11 with a 28-percent profit mark- up added. 92 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.