Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 butter, and the index of sugar beets is assumed to equal the index of state procurements of sugar beets. The other indexes are estimated from a variety of sources. The detailed derivation of each index is too extensive to present here. Table B-7 shows the computation of the index of value added in agriculture. This calculation also is based on the 1972 input-output table. First an index of net agricultural output is computed in 1972 prices by multiplying the 1972 value derived from the input- output table by the index derived by Hughes and Severin in 1970 prices (JEC, Agriculture, table A-1) The 1972 value of net agricultural output is computed as follows: Billion Rubles Gross output of agriculture in 114.7 purchasers’ prices Less: i ’W>_PuLchases from the traile sector 4.6 “ii Less: Purchases from the transporta- 1.4 tion and communiciations ‘ V i_ sector i Wm _ Purchases from the agriculture 23.9 sector __ Equals: Net agricultural output 84.8 Less: Similarly, the index of nonagricultural material in- puts is expressed in 1972 prices by multiplying it by the 1972 value of such purchases, 18.3 billion rubles. This value can be derived from the 1972 input-output table as the sum of all purchases from the nonagricul- tural sectors. Subtracting the material-input series from the net output series produces an estimate of value added in agriculture in 1972 rubles which can then be converted to index form. ln the general discussion about the problems of measuring the real growth of value added, it was indicated that use of a gross output index may be preferable to the double deflation method unless the difference between the annual growth rates of gross output and the material inputs is 2 percentage points or more. Table B-8 shows the annual growth rates of gross output, total material inputs, and value added for agriculture. It is clear that frequently there is a large gap between the growth rates; therefore, the double deflation procedure described here is prefera- ble for this sector. 91 Table B-8 Annual Percentage Rates ofGrowth Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in Agriculture Year (1) (2) (3) (4) Gross Total Value Column l Output Material Added Less _ _ Inputs _ .__-_C_°!2!""2. . 1951 -4.9 3.2 -8.0 -8.1 B2 1953 4.4 2.9 5.1 6.6 7.8 6.0” 1 1.3 1954 2.8 4.6 2.0 - 1.8 1955 _ 12.7 11.57 — 13.3776” 118.2%” 19.56 14} 112 714? 1074” T 1957 1.6 W 1- — “M771 if 15.53 8.8 1.5 7.2 8.2 1959 1 960 7.9 8.4 0.3 f-_0.3 3.2 _ -2.0 f -3.5 f 1961 1.7 A 0.9’ 2.1 “W070 if _6.3 5T N 6.9 8 iiiii V1.1 1962 ~04 54- -32 5.5.7 .. 1963 -15.1 —4.3_ —20.sfl_____Z__— 10.9__ 1 964 21.7 4.9 32.1 16.7 1965 5.4 7' Z7 8 1 966 4.7 5.s__W_0.s 1% _ 6.7 12.4w __ 4.0 ’__—_5.7 __ 1967 0 2.9 - 1.6 -2.9 1 967; 3.57 PT 6.3 1.85.3 W" "Wm M 1969 - 1.2 4.6 -4.4 - 5.8 1970 — 11.5 6.77 14.4'7TW*' 4.571 1971 -0.3 2.2 1.7 2.5 1972 -5.0 1.2__ H -8.5" __”___—6._2W_ W 1973 1974 15.5 13.6” M 16.7________g1.9__ Kg _i2.2 —2.3 -2.2 0.1 1975 —7.3 2.2” -13.3 "-96 1976 8-4 4-K 71-4..- *i-...“3-.1§. if 1977 3.3 3.0 3.5 0.3 1978 . 4-3 5,5: _-_1-5“.7.ji.ii.i_—.7.l.2..~.if 1979 -4.8 0.3 -8.3 -5.1 1980 -5.2 —2.4” —7.3 W:2.s* 7 17 Sources: Column 1: The gross output of agriculture is computed as the sum of the gross outputs of the livestock and crops sectors. The gross output of the livestock sector is published in JEC, Agriculture (table A-1). The gross output of the crops sector is equal to net crops output (ibid) plus the value of seed and waste (unpublished estimates). Column 2: Total material inputs are computed as the sum of non-ag- ricultural material purchases (table B-7, column 4) and agricultural material purchases. The latter (unpublished) is calculated as gross output less net output. Column 3: This was computed from table B-7, column 6. Column 4: This is column 1 less column 2. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.