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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table B-3
Derivation of the Implicit Construction Price Index
Year (1) (Z) (3) (4)
Gross Material- Implicit Implicit
Output of Input Annual Price
Construc- Construc- Price Index
tion tion Change (1970= I00)
(billion Index (percent)
rubles) (1970= 100)
I950 12.1 20.4 NA 88.1
1951 $13.16‘ 23.3 -1.9 86.4
I952 15.3 25.7 2.2 88.3
1953 28.3 -4.8 84.1
gy____ 18.2 31.5 1.2 85.2 A
1955 18.4 35.7 - 10.4 76.3
1956 20._3___ 38.9 1.4 77.4
1957___* 22.6 43.1 0.3 77.7
l958____ <25.7 48.7 0.4 78.0
I959 29.2_ 54.7 1.1 78.9
1960 31.9 58.9 1.6 80.1
1961 32.7 62.0 -2.6 78.1
i2Ei,..._22-6 64.9 -1.9 76.6
1963 34.7 67.4 -0.6 76.1
1964 36.6 70.9 0.4 _ 76.4
1965 40._3 75.3 3.6 79.2
1966 43.0 78.8 2.0 80.7
1967 50.0 84.8 8.0 87.2
1968 53.0 89.3 0.7 87.8
1969 60.0 92.8 8.8 95.6
1970 67.6 100.0 4.6 100.0
1971 74.7 106.7 3.6 103.6
1972 77.4 112.2 -1.5 102.0
1973 80.9 118.8 -1.3 100.8
1974 851“ 125.0 1.5 102.2
1__975 91.7 131.2 1.1 103.4
1976 94.2 135.6 -0.6 102.7
1_917 96.2 138.9 -0.2 102.5
I978 99.2 143.0 0.1 102.6
1979 NA 144.1 NA NA
1980 NA 147.7 NA NA
Sources: Column 1: 1958-78 are from Narkhoz I978, p. 41, and
similar tables in other issues. 1950-57 are derived by linking a series
of estimates of construction-installation work in current prices
developed by Moorsteen and Powell (The Soviet Capital Stock,
I928-1962, p. 395, table A-7, columns 5 plus 8) to the 1958 value.
Column 2: This was described in the text.
Columns 3 and 4: Both were derived from a comparison of columns 1
and 2.
87
Table B-4
Derivation of an Implicit Price Index for Investment in
New Construction and Other Capital Outlays
Year (ll
New
Construc-
tion and
Other
Capital
Outlays
(billion
rubles)
Investment
in New
Construc-
tion
(billion 1969
rubles)
1961 27.9
(3) (4)
Implicit Implicit
Annual Price
Price Index
Change (1970= I00)
32.2 ___’ NA if W’
1962 28.7 32.8 1.0 83.0
1963 29.6 33.8
1'
9 ..“_. 83-9 if -
I964 31.0 36.2% __-2.1’ 81.3% f
1965 34.7 39.5 ,__8_3_;3 .. . .
1 966 36.8 42.5 - 1.3 p_ 82.1 __7____
1967
I968
43.4
46.1
46.1
49.7
3-8 __,__89- _ ______ __
-1.5 88.0
3
I969 52.6 51.1
C
. .__ 97-7._._._.
I970 59.8 56.7” W l00.0fiWWm
1971 65.9 61.4’ 101.7
1972 68.1 65.5 —3._0__‘ 98.6 p_____
1973 70.8 67.6_ 0.7 M____99.3 _W___
1974 75.2 71.6__’ 0.2 99.5
1975 79.3 76.4_
1976 80.7 77.9
1977 81.5 79.9__
-~ Q; Cf;1 1 98.
-0.2 98.2 _
-1.6 W 96.7 MW
1978 83.2 83.8 -2.6 94.1
Sources: Column 1: This was derived from table B-3, column 1 less
capital repair of buildings and structures (table C-2, column 2).
Column 2: This was taken from Narkhoz 1972, p. 474, and similar
tables in other issues.
Columns 3 and 4: These were derived from a comparison of columns
I a.nd 2.
from the current-price gross output series in table B-3.
(See appendix C for the derivation of the capital
repair series in current prices.) The resulting series is
compared with the Narkhoz series on investment in
new construction and other capital outlays in constant
prices (table B-4). The implicit price index derived
from this camparison (column 4 of table B-4) matches
the index derived in table B-3 closely, especially the
large price increases in 1967 and 1969.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.