Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Table B-2 Derivation of the Index of Purchases of Construction Materials by the Construction Sector Year (1) (2) (3) Percent Gross Construction Ma- Purchases of ~ Output of Con- terials Production Construction Ma- struction Mate- (Index: terials (Index: rials Sold to 1972 = 100) 1972 = 100) Construction Year (1) Percent Gross Output of Con- struction Mate- rials Sold to Construction (2) Construction Ma- terials Production (Index: 1972 = 1 00) <5?” I Purchases of Construction M teria1s(lndex: 1972 = 100) 1950 74.55 10.1 9.8 1 966 75.17 71.4 70.0 1951 74.55 12.2 11.9 1967 75.43 77.1 75.8 MW 1952 74.55 14.3 13.9 1968 75.69 80.2 79.1 1953 74.55 16.5 16.0 1 969 75.95 81.9 81.0 1954 74.55 19.3 18.7 1970 76.21 88.9 ss.3_ 1955 74.55 23.2 22.5 1971 76.47 95.3 94.9 1956 74.55 26.0 25.2 1972 76.73 100.0 100.0 1957 74.55 30.6 29.7 1973 76.73 106.0 106.0 1958 74.55 37.1 36.1 1974 76.73 110.9 110.9 1959 74.55 43.3 42.0 1975 76.73 115.3 115.3 1960 74.63 49.1 47.8 1976 76.73 119.5 119.5 1961 74.72 53.5 52.1 1977 76.73 121.2 121.2 1962 74.81 56.4 55.0 1978 76.73 123.9 123.9 1963 74.90 58.3 57.0 1979 76.73 123.8 123.8 1964 74.99 61.0 59.6 1965 75.08 66.0 64.6 1980 76.73 125.1 125.1 Sources." Column 1: 1959, 1966, and 1972 are calculated from the respective input-output tables. These tables are published in Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinskiy, and Vladimir G. Treml, Conversion of Soviet Input-Output Tables to Pr0ducers’Prices: The 1959 Reconstructed Table, Foreign Economic Report 6, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington D.C., 1975; Vladimir G. Treml, Dimitri M. Gallik, and Barry L. Kostinskiy, “1966 Ex-Post Input-Output Tables for the USSR: A Survey,” in Vladimir G. Treml, ed., Studies in Soviet Input-Output Analysis, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1977, pp. 1-67; and Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinskiy, and Vladimir G. Treml, checked for reasonableness by comparing the gross output of the construction sector in current prices, as published in the Narkhoz, with our index in 1970 prices and computing the implicit annual price changes and implicit price index (table B-3). On the whole, the implicit price index is reasonable. It shows price declines in the early 1950s, especially in 1955, which conform with Soviet claims of price reductions. After 1955 there is a pattern of moderate price increases with two large increases in 1967 and 1969. The 1967 industrial price reform raised the prices of Input-Output Structure of the Soviet Economy." 1972, US Depart- ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., forthcoming. The values for 1950-58 are assumed to be equal to the 1959 value, and the values for 1973-80 are assumed to be equal to the 1972 value. The 1960-65 and 1967-71 values are linearly interpolated. Column 2: This was derived from the index of industrial production described by Ray Converse in JEC, Industry. Column 3: This is column 1 times column 2, rebased so that 1972 = 100. construction materials, and construction prices were explicitly increased in 1969. Since 1970 remarkably little price change is indicated. A second test compares an implicit price index de- rived from Soviet data with the price index derived in table B-3. First, a series showing expenditures on new construction and other capital outlays in current prices was derived by subtracting current-price esti- mates of capital repair of buildings and structures 86 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.