USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
VIII
in many Ways. Foremost is their use in making assessments of the Soviet econ-
omy by analyzing the interplay of the disposition of resources for consump-
tion, defense, and future growth. Insights into the regime’s policies and priori-
ties can be obtained by assessing the “burden” of defense and the pattern of
allocating the “growth dividend.” In addition to being a measure of the size
and growth of the economy, GNP also provides a standard against which other
economic variables can be measured, such as the amount of energy used per
unit of GNP.
The GNP data base forms the foundation for forecasting, either by using
large econometric models or other means. Such forecasts not only concern the
future growth rate of total GNP, but also can be employed to assess other im-
portant variables, such as the domestic demand for oil.
The GNP estimates can be used to compare the size of the Soviet economy
with the United States or other countries. and the relative priorities each
country assigns to the uses of its national product. Such international com-
parisons depend, of course, on the domestic value of GNP or one of its com-
ponents. For example, an earlier publication in this series estimated the value
of Soviet consumption relative to other countries?
Despite the limitations of the estimates, the work expended on the GIA
independent measures represents a valuable contribution to economic analysis
of the USSR. The results shown in this volume present a picture of Soviet
economic growth difl'erent from that given by the ofiicial measures. Each of
the four studies presents comparative results in detail. By way of summary,
the following tabulation compares average annual growth rates for the four
aggregate indices and their closest Soviet official counterparts for 195l—80:
A average mnnual rate of growth in I‘-he jz/cars 1951-80
[Percent]
CIA Soviet
measure measure
GNP 1 _____________________________ __
Industrial production _____________________________________ __
Agriculture production 2 __________________________________ __
Per capita consumption ____________________ __
I I I I I I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
PNP? U1<ZJ30~7
QWQN
OI-*~I»I=
‘The CIA measure for the same coverage as the Soviet measure (see text) is 5.3
percent per year
“The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used
by agriculture (seed and feed). This is the concept of output closest in coverage to the
official Soviet measure of farm output. As a contributing sector to GNP the appropriate
measure for agriculture output is value added (net output less material purchases from
other sectors) which over this period grew at 2.0 percent per year.
It is clear that, except for agriculture, the growth ra'te differences are large
and, over a 30-year period, indicate a significantly different picture of economic
growth than that provided by ofiicial Soviet statistics.
“‘Consumption in the USSR: An International Comparison," IRS. Congress, Joint Economic
Committee, August 1981.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421