Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 of the individual inputs is taken from the correspond- ing parts of the industrial production and other indexes. The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but apparently the best that can be had with the data available. Agriculture. The index of net agricultural production (gross production less intra-agricultural use) is de- scribed in detail by Margaret Hughes and Barbara Severin in JEC, Agriculture. It is derived as the sum of the physical production of 42 products multiplied by their average 1970 price, less the estimated quanti- ties of seed and feed used by agriculture itself. The value-added index is then derived by subtracting an index of material purchases from nonagricultural sectors. The weights for this index are based on the 1972 I-O table. Transportation. This index is a weighted average of indexes of freight and passenger transportation. Deri- vation of the passenger transportation index is the same as the end-use transportation index, but without any deductions for business travel in the 1970 weights. The freight transportation index is a weight- ed average of rail, sea, inland-waterway, oil-pipeline, truck, air, and gas-pipeline freight transportation. The output of all of the components is measured in ton- kilometers, except that of gas pipelines which is measured in cubic meters of gas shipped. The weights are 1970 revenues per ton-kilometer or per cubic meter. Communications. The communications index is the same as the one described above as a part of consumption. Trade. The trade index is a weighted average of the three main activities of the domestic trade sector: (1) retail trade, (2) wholesale trade and material-technical supply, and (3) agricultural procurement. The retail trade index is an average of the consumption indexes for food (less income in kind), soft goods, and dura- bles. The wholesale trade index is a gross output weighted average of the indexes of all of the branches of industry except the electric power and other indus- try branches. The agricultural procurement index is a weighted average of state purchases of 16 types of 49 agricultural products. The weights are 1970 procure- ment prices. The three component indexes are com- bined with estimated 1970 value-added weights. Services. The service indexes on the sector-of-origin side of the accounts are the same as those described in the list of end-use indexes except that an index is added for the credit and insurance sector. Only this index and any differences from the end-use indexes are described here. The credit and insurance index represents employ- ment converted to hours worked. All of the reserva- tions about employment indexes apply to this index. Indeed, the credit and insurance index almost certain- ly fails to capture labor productivity growth that results from effective application of machine calcula- tors and computers. We have no evidence, however, on which we could estimate a productivity allowance. The sector-of-origin utilities index measures the value added by that part of the housing-communal economy sector that supplies water, gas, heat, and sewage services. The delivery of gas is measured by total gas production and the delivery of all other services is measured by the stock of urban housing. The education and health indexes for sector of origin use only the labor component of the end-use indexes. Military Personnel. This is an index of personnel costs in 1970 prices as estimated by the CIA. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.