Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 26 …the shifting of industrial produc- tion toward Siberia, which leads to longer shipping distances to reach…
  • p. 51 …may cost much more to construct in Siberia than in the Ukraine because of greater transportation…
  • p. 268 …European Russia, Ukraine, the “Volga Valley,” Western Siberia and Altay kray, and Northern and Central Kazakhstan…
  • p. 306 …Kok- chetav and Northern Kazakhstan are equated with Omsk in Western Siberia; all other Kazakhstan ob…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
of the individual inputs is taken from the correspond-
ing parts of the industrial production and other
indexes. The material-input index is less desirable
than a double deflation or gross output index, but
apparently the best that can be had with the data
available.
Agriculture. The index of net agricultural production
(gross production less intra-agricultural use) is de-
scribed in detail by Margaret Hughes and Barbara
Severin in JEC, Agriculture. It is derived as the sum
of the physical production of 42 products multiplied
by their average 1970 price, less the estimated quanti-
ties of seed and feed used by agriculture itself. The
value-added index is then derived by subtracting an
index of material purchases from nonagricultural
sectors. The weights for this index are based on the
1972 I-O table.
Transportation. This index is a weighted average of
indexes of freight and passenger transportation. Deri-
vation of the passenger transportation index is the
same as the end-use transportation index, but without
any deductions for business travel in the 1970
weights. The freight transportation index is a weight-
ed average of rail, sea, inland-waterway, oil-pipeline,
truck, air, and gas-pipeline freight transportation. The
output of all of the components is measured in ton-
kilometers, except that of gas pipelines which is
measured in cubic meters of gas shipped. The weights
are 1970 revenues per ton-kilometer or per cubic
meter.
Communications. The communications index is the
same as the one described above as a part of
consumption.
Trade. The trade index is a weighted average of the
three main activities of the domestic trade sector: (1)
retail trade, (2) wholesale trade and material-technical
supply, and (3) agricultural procurement. The retail
trade index is an average of the consumption indexes
for food (less income in kind), soft goods, and dura-
bles. The wholesale trade index is a gross output
weighted average of the indexes of all of the branches
of industry except the electric power and other indus-
try branches. The agricultural procurement index is a
weighted average of state purchases of 16 types of
49
agricultural products. The weights are 1970 procure-
ment prices. The three component indexes are com-
bined with estimated 1970 value-added weights.
Services. The service indexes on the sector-of-origin
side of the accounts are the same as those described in
the list of end-use indexes except that an index is
added for the credit and insurance sector. Only this
index and any differences from the end-use indexes
are described here.
The credit and insurance index represents employ-
ment converted to hours worked. All of the reserva-
tions about employment indexes apply to this index.
Indeed, the credit and insurance index almost certain-
ly fails to capture labor productivity growth that
results from effective application of machine calcula-
tors and computers. We have no evidence, however,
on which we could estimate a productivity allowance.
The sector-of-origin utilities index measures the value
added by that part of the housing-communal economy
sector that supplies water, gas, heat, and sewage
services. The delivery of gas is measured by total gas
production and the delivery of all other services is
measured by the stock of urban housing.
The education and health indexes for sector of origin
use only the labor component of the end-use indexes.
Military Personnel. This is an index of personnel
costs in 1970 prices as estimated by the CIA.
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.