Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“V.M.”23 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 If this expression is deflated by a Paasche (current- year weighted) price index, then the desired Laspeyres output index is obtained: N 2 Q(t,i)p(t,i) i=1 N N 2 Q(0,i)p(0,i) 2 Q(t,i)p(O,i) i=1 _ i=1 N T N 2 Q(t,i)p(t,i) 2 Q(0,i)p(0,i) 1=l i=l N E Q(t,i)p(0,i) i= 1 Rarely is information available on production and prices for all goods and services in both the base and the given year. If only a sample of observations is available, then the two sides of the previous equation may not be the same. For example, suppose there are N products, but price and quantity data are available only for n (less than N) products. The estimated growth of output from year O to year t using the deflated current-price index would be: N N n Z Q(t.i)p(0,i) 2 Q(t,i)p(t,i) Z Q(t,i)p(0,i) i=1 _ i=1 i=1 N T N X n Z‘ Q(0,i)p(O,i) Z Q(0,i)p(0,i) Z Q(t,i)p(t,i) i=1 i=l i=l and the estimate using the quantity index would be: _.,,Z -Q t,i)p(0,i) Z Q(t,i)p(0,i) N = n 21 Q(0,i)p(0,i) 2 Q(0,i)p(O,i) i= l i= 1 If n=N, then the two equations are identical. lf n is less than N, the reliability of the deflated current- price index depends on the accuracy of the price index 43 computed from the sample data, and the reliability of the quantity index depends on the representativeness of the quantity sample. Hill argues that the price index is likely to be more accurate, especially when large numbers of new products are being introduced and old products withdrawn.” Unfortunately, Soviet price data are so scarce and unreliable that the deflation method is not practical either for GNP as a wlhole or for most individual sector indexes. The quantity index method is relied upon almost exclusively. Specific Index Number Problems Several specific index number problems are also important in the measurement of Soviet GNP. They arise in the treatment of regional production, seasonal production, price discrimination. quality changes, and unique products. Regional Production. The resources required to pro- duce a given product may be quite different depend- ing on where a product is made. For example, a school building of exactly the same dimensions may cost much more to construct in Siberia than in the Ukraine because of greater transportation expenses, more stringent structural requirements, a larger heat- ing unit, and more difficult construction conditions. To the extent that the added cost reflects real differ- ences in the use of resources, a shift in production to a more expensive region represents an increase in pro- duction rather than a price increase. Theoretically, we should construct weighted regional production index- es, but the scarcity of data does not permit doing so. The influence of regional production on the growth of GNP is probably most important in the construction, agriculture, and fuel sectors. Seasonal Production. Changes in seasonal production patterns present a similar problem. A vegetable grown near Moscow in a hothouse during the winter requires more resources than the same vegetable grown out- doors during the summer. Theoretically, the two vegetables should be treated as different products, and a production or price index containing them ” Hill, Measurement, p. 25. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.