USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
FOREWORD
By Chairman Henry S. Reuss
The Soviet Union does not publish measures of economic growth and devel-
opment comparable with those of \Vestern countries. Rather, it publishes
measures of growth that are geared to its own definitions of econonnc pheno1n-
ena and its own political requirements. In addition, it follows a policy of
secrecy with regard to much of its economic activities and has been inconsistent
in the compara ility and coverage of the economic statistics that are published.
The result is a large gap in the information available in the West concerning
the performance of the Soviet economy. To help fill this gap, the Central Intel-
ligence Agency (CIA) has been called upon to provide quantified estimates of
the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its size
relative to U.S. GNP, and its allocation among the various end uses—consump-
tion, investment, and government expenditures, including defense.
The studies contained in this volume are the culmination of a large re-
search efl'ort over many years carried out by CIA’s Directorate for Intelligence.
The estimates of GNP and its components, which are included, are virtually the
only independent \Vestern estimates of these important measures of economic
performance in the Soviet Union. Earlier results of this work have appeared in
various Joint Economic Committee studies of the Soviet economy and CIA’s
annual Handbook of Economic Statistics. This publication is the first time that
the concepts, methodologies, and data have been fully explained and docu-
mented in a comprehensive and up-to-date form.
The studies include separate sections devoted to agriculture and industry-
the major components of the originating sectors in the GNP, and to consump-
tion—-the principal end-use sector. Part I discusses the overall estimates of
Soviet GNP by sector of origin and end use. Each of the remaining three studies
analyzes in detail a major component of GNP. Part II contains an index of in-
dustrial production. Part III is an index of a ricultural production. And the
final part is an index of consumption. Indices Eor all other sectors are included
in Part I.
Each study includes detailed compilations of the data used, their sources,
and the methodologies used to combine the data into the aggregate measures.
The goals of this publication are to achieve a wider understanding of how the
synthetic measures of Soviet economic performance are derived, to encourage
their broader use in analyses of Soviet economic performance, and to stimulate
discussion of ways to improve these measures and our general understanding of
the Soviet economy.
NE(JESSI'I'Y To CALCUL.-\'I‘]<1 INl)EPENl)]<IN'l‘ l\Iu.xsum:s
There are several reasons for the calculation of independent measures of
Soviet economic performance. The deficiencies of oflicial Soviet measures of
economic activity are well documented. Official Soviet measures are often con-
ceptually different from the measures used in the ‘Vest, are not published in
suflicient detail, are sometimes published in noncomparable series, and tend to
inflate real growth rates.
The ofiieial Soviet measure of economic growth, referred to as net material
product, includes only the value added in the production of goods, and a few
services. The value added in the rest of the service sector and all depreciation
(V)
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421