Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 It should be clear that the AFCS is an imperfect measure of production potential and that our empiri- cal application of it is even more imperfect. The prices that we implicitly construct using the AFCS are not the equilibrium prices of Western national income theory, and the data do not exist to implement the AFCS with great precision. Nevertheless, the AFCS is to be preferred to Soviet established prices because it removes major price distortions and provides a better measure of changes in production potential and resource allocation than do Soviet prices. Our application of the AFCS builds on the work by Bergson and Becker. Starting with established prices, they deleted turnover taxes and added subsidies to arrive at GNP by sector of origin at factor cost. The effect of these price changes was then estimated on the various components of GNP by end use. The same adjustments also are done here. The availability of reconstructed Soviet input-output tables, however, permits some improvement in the allocation of the adjustments among end-use sectors. In addition, we replace profits with a capital charge which is calculat- ed as a percentage of each sector’s stock of fixed and working capital, and extend our earlier use of the input-output tables by integrating the service sectors into the adjustment process. Soviet GNP in 1970 in Established Prices and at Factor Cost This section presents GNP accounts for the Soviet Union in 1970 in established prices and then converts the accounts to factor-cost prices, step by step: ~ The 1970 accounts in established -prices are elabo- rated into an input-output framework. ¢ A 1970 input-output table in producers’ prices is estimated. - A factor-cost repricing algorithm is developed and applied to the 1970 input-output table. The Revised 1970 Soviet GNP Accounts ClA’s original estimates of the 1970 GNP accounts were published in 1975.“ The revisions in those ' accounts to take account of new information are described in appendix D, and the revised accounts are " CIA, GNP 1970. summarized in tables 8 and 9. These accounts are based on an elaboration and recombination of the income and outlay flows described above. The income account (table 8) combines portions of the left-hand column in each of the individual accounts. Thus, state wages and salaries are the sum of items 1.2 and 2.2. Similarly, the expenditure account (table 9) shows data from the right-hand side of each set of accounts. In order to estimate the relationship between estab- lished prices and factor-cost prices, it is necessary to identify the effect of a price change in one sector on the price level of all sectors. This is necessary because a change in value added, such as replacing profits by a capital charge, represents a price change. The device used for this purpose is an input-output (I-O) table. It shows the structure of each sector’s purchases from and sales to each sector, which allows the direct and indirect effects of a price change to be traced. In order to use an I-O table, the data in tables 8 and 9 need to be disaggregated according to I-O definitions. The value-added quadrant of an I-O table identifies the types of income shown in table 8 with the sector in which it is produced (columns of the I-O table). Similarly GNP by end use (table 9) represents the final expenditures on final goods and services. The final-demand quadrant of the I-O table identifies these expenditures with the sectors from which they are purchased (rows of the I-O table). Both of these disaggregations are shown in appendix E. Construction of the 1970 Input-Output Table and Conversion of the 1970 Accounts to Factor Cost The construction of the 1970 input-output table pro- ceeds in two steps. First, the established-price data are converted to producers’ prices. Then the converted data are used with an I-O updating algorithm to estimate a 1970 I-O table in producers’ prices based on the structure of the Soviet 1972 I-O table in producers’ prices. Producers’ prices are equal to estab- lished prices less turnover taxes, plus subsidies, less trade and transportation expenses on delivered prod- ucts.” Producers’ prices are used to estimate the 1970 " For a detailed discussion of producers‘ prices, see Vladimir G. Treml et al., Conversion of Soviet Input-Output Tables to Produc- ers'Prices: The 1966 Reconstructed Table, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Foreign Economic Re- port No. l, Washington, D.C., 1973. 38 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Not linked to a story yet.
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.