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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Table 6 Billion Rubles
Subsidies on Agricultural Products Sold
to the Light and Food Industries
Year Light Industry Food Industry
1966 0.3 3.3
Table 7
Profits as a Percent of Productive
Fixed and Working Capital in 1972
19.3
10.2
26.0
Industry
Electric power
Oil extraction
1967 0.3 5.0 Oil refining 21.8
1968 0.3 7.3
1969 0.3 8.2
1970 1.7 13.0
Gas
Goal
Ferrous metals
46.0
6.3
16.0
1971 1.8 14.1 Chemicals 19.8
1972 2.0 15.2 Machinery 20.2
1973 0.6 15.8 Wood, pulp, and paper 17.7
1974 0.2 17.3 Construction materials 11.8
1975 0.5 19.0
Source: Vladimir G. Treml, Agricultural Subsidies in the Soviet
Union, US Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 1978, p. 9.
order to stimulate production and improve the quality
of the Soviet diet. At the same time, the government
has held retail prices constant. Therefore, it has had
to subsidize the light and food industries increasingly
to cover their higher costs.
The agricultural subsidy has grown rapidly and now
amounts to more than 20 billion rubles per year.
Selected data relating to the light and food industries
make it clear that the food industry receives most of
the subsidy (table 6). The price distortions resulting
from the combined effects of turnover taxes and
subsidies are most striking at a disaggregated level.
Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross
outputs of the sugar and other food branches in 1972,
while subsidies represented a negative 48 and 22
percent of the gross outputs of the meat and dairy
sectors. Thus the subsidies tend to reinforce rather
than offset price distortions caused by turnover taxes.
Variations in Profit Rates
Profits of a khozraschet enterprise~as noted earli-
er—are not intended to serve the same purpose as
profits in a Western business. Instead, they are a
mechanism to obtain sufficient funds for centralized
public expenditures, to provide material incentives to
27.0
24.5
5.5
59.3
12.7
12.2
31.5
13.9
Light industry
Food industry
Sugar
Meat
Transportation
River transport
Automobile transport
Communications
Source: Narkhoz I 975, pp. 728-29.
enterprise management, to measure performance of
enterprise management, and to exercise fiscal and
administrative control. _
After the management reforms of 1965, the role of
profits increased significantly. Reflecting this, total
profits increased rapidly, from 37 billion rubles in
1965 to 87 billion rubles in 1970. Profits, however, are
distributed quite unevenly among sectors, and the
profit rate on fixed and working capital varies enor-
mously (table 7). For this reason, profits do not appear
to be a reliable indicator of the contribution of capital
to production, a precondition for the use of established
prices as a measure of production potential.
Moreover, much of the service sector does not earn
profits because the enterprises are financed from the
state budget. The lack of any charge for the use of
capital stock in the service sphere undervalues the
resources used to produce those services.
36
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.