Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Anderson”1 page
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 that two products of equal cost may have, or for the relative scarcity of the inputs used to produce the product. Since demand has little or no effect on prices, some goods will be in abundant supply while others are rationed. Distortions Caused by Turnover Taxes and Subsidies The turnover tax is one of the major sources of government income in the Soviet Union. It is effec- tively an excise tax levied selectively on various products, but mostly on consumer goods. It can be characterized as a tax on consumers’ income, intended to soak up excess purchasing power and to restrain consumer demand. The often high incidence of the tax and its selective application are important reasons why Soviet prices do not fit the Western model which requires that price equal marginal cost. Table 5 shows selected data from the 1972 Soviet input-output table on the level and variability of the turnover tax. Most of the taxes are levied on consumer goods, as indicated by the large amounts collected in the light and food industry sectors. The fuel taxes are an exception: most are collected on interindustrial sales and in some cases are extremely high. In the case of agriculture, the farms pay heavy taxes on fuel pur- chases while receiving a subsidy on electricity purchases. The aggregate data in table 5 not only indicate a high variance in tax incidence, but also hide other differ- ences. For example, the entire turnover tax revenue shown for machinery products arises from taxations of consumer goods, mainly automobiles (the tax accounts for 53 percent of consumption outlays for automobiles in purchasers’ prices) and radioelectronics (15 per- cent). Within the food industry, no taxes are paid on the output of the fish, meat, dairy products, flour, and fruit and vegetable sectors. On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the sugar industry and 56 percent of the gross output of the “other foods” branch, which manufactures alcoholic beverages. Clearly, wide variations in indirect tax rates weaken the usefulness of prices as a measure of production potential. The suggestion has been made that Soviet turnover taxes represent a surrogate factor charge to compensate for the other problems in Soviet prices. 35 Table 5 Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 Sector Turnover Taxes (billion rubles) Gross Output (billion rubles) Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output (percent) Metals 0. 1 44.2 0.2 Fuel 39.2 15.1 W T 5 .9“ gectric power 14.0 4.1 if f0.6 Machinery 4.3 117.1 3.7M___ _ A“____ Chemicals 1.1 29.6 3.7 Wood, pulp, and paper 0.2- 25.5 0.9 W Qmstruction materials 0.; 25.0 1.4 I Light industry l5.7_ 87.5 1s.o T End industry 26.2 126.2 20.8 ____ Other industry 1.0 13.4 7.6 Source: Dimitri M. Gallik, Barry L. Kostinsky, and Vladimir G. Treml, Input-Output Structure of the Soviet Economy: 1972, Foreign Economic Report 18, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Foreign Demographic Analysis Division, Washington, D.C.; forthcoming. This issue has been discussed in detail by Becker and Bergson, both of whom rejected the argument.“ Subsidies also force a divergence between prices and marginal costs. In the 1967 price reform, the prices of natural resources such as coal, oil, gas, and ferrous and nonferrous ores were raised sharply in order to eliminate subsidies or to improve profit levels. Rising extraction costs since then have made once profitable branches unprofitable and led to renewed subsidies and the need to raise prices once again. In the coal industry, for example, profits have declined from 844 million rubles in 1970 to a loss of 626 million rubles in 1978." The most expensive subsidies are now paid on agricul- tural products. The Soviet Government has several times raised procurement prices for various agricul- tural products, notably meat and dairy products, in " Becker, 1969, pp. 47-49; and Bergson, 1961, pp. 105-108. " Narkhoz I978, p. 517. Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.