Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Anderson”1 page
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 are classified as final output in our GNP accounts. Expenditures funded by ministries and enterprises for the final development and implementation of produc- tion of new products are considered to be intermediate purchases.“ The value of services, such as health and education, that are paid for by enterprises presents a similar problem. In the United States, businesses normally pay for health and educational services directly con- nected with employment. Most Soviet health and education expenses are paid for by the government, but enterprises also are thought to pay significant amounts. Soviet data, however, do not identify which expenditures are for private consumption and which are incidental to the production of goods and services. In these accounts, we estimate the volume of enter- prise payments in 1970 for education and then classify all educational services as final output, contrary to US practice. Valuation of government services poses a question of comparability. In the United States, government serv- ices are valued at cost, as the sum of all current expenditures for materials, services, and wages. This procedure undervalues these services relative to pri- vately provided services because there is no allowance for profits or depreciation. In estimating Soviet GNP, we have followed the same practice, but the more extensive nature of government services in the USSR leads to greater distortion on this account. The Second Economy. The second, or unofficial, economy in the Soviet Union has grown rapidly, and both its size and significance are now discussed widely. Grossman asserts that the second economy constitutes a large share of the Soviet economy and that its incomplete accounting in GNP distorts meas- ures of the size and distribution of Soviet output. Schroeder and Greenslade argue that the most impor- tant aspects of the second economy are already ac- counted for in the GNP accounts as presented here.” " The exact coverage of the Soviet official data on science expenditures is uncertain. In particular, some prototype production may not be included. " Gregory Grossman, “The ‘Second Economy’ of the USSR,” Problems of Communism 26, September-October 1977, pp. 25-40; and Gertrude E. Schroeder and Rush V. Greenslade, “On the Measurement of the Second Economy in the USSR," ACES Bulletin 21, spring 1979, pp. 3-21. The term “second economy" normally is defined to encompass the entire range of private productive activity in the Soviet Union. Most of this activity is legal, including private agricultural production, pri- vate housing construction, and the sale of privately produced services such as health, education, and recreation. Although the present accounts attempt to cover this activity, in all likelihood they do not capture it completely. In addition to the legal activities, a wide variety of illegal activities are carried on, including the theft and sale of state property and the illegal production of certain products, the most prominent of which is liquor.“ The practice in the US accounts is to exclude illegal activities, and that rule is followed here.” Imputations. Several imputations are necessary to account for production that takes place outside of normal buyer-seller relationships and, hence, does not have any monetary value assigned to it. In the Soviet Union, the prime categories of such activity are agricultural production consumed in kind, the value of food and clothing given to members of the armed forces, and the rental value of owner-occupied hous- ing. The goal is to attach a value to these activities using the same prices for which equivalent goods are sold. Thus, the retail prices of food and clothing are used to value military subsistence, the average rent per square meter of state housing is used for estimat- ing the rental value of owner-occupied housing, and the average realized selling price of each type of agricultural product is used to value agricultural output consumed in kind. Valuation of owner-occu- pied housing presents a special problem in that state- owned housing is heavily subsidized, and the proce- dure adopted here implicitly provides a similar subsidy for private housing. The quality of state housing may be superior to that of private housing, but the evidence is insufficient to make an adjustment. " An estimate of private production of liquor in the Soviet Union is in Vladimir G. Treml, “Production and Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages in the USSR: A Statistical Study,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol 36, March 1975, pp. 285-320. ’° The effects of illegal activities on GNP are discussed in Edward F. Denison, “Effects of Selected Changes in the Institutional and Human Environment Upon Output Per Unit of Input," Survey of Current Business 58, January 1978, pp. 37-42. 32 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.