Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Mons”2 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 In making the calculations, allowance was made for a change in classification in the 1960s. Parental fees were added to total budget expenditures for kindergartens. (4) For the years 1976-80, data on total non-invest- ment expenditures by major kind of school are given in Narkhoz I980, p. 525. The percentage shares obtained for 1975 in step (1) were used to calculate values of total current purchases for those years. (b) Price index Other current purchases by educational institutions encompass a wide variety of items. The largest cate- gory is food (estimated from budget data at 47 percent of the total in 1970). Other sizeable items are services and miscellaneous outlays (25 percent), bedding and uniforms (9 percent), and numerous items related to utilities, office supplies, and housekeeping expenses (l 5 percent). No satisfactory price index exists or can be devised to deflate this mix of expenditures. Official industrial wholesale price indexes are too highly ag- gregated for categories other than food, and in any event are of dubious reliability, as are also the official indexes of retail prices.“ In the belief that some deflation procedure, however crude, is preferable to none, it was decided to adopt a deflator that is implicit when the CIA index of household consumption of purchased goods in constant prices is compared with an index of retail sales of such goods in current prices that can be calculated from official Soviet data. The justification for employing this “alternative” index is as follows: (I) the need for some kind of deflation is recognized; (2) the implicit index is largely indepen- dent of official price indexes; (3) from a comparison of data in Vest stat, No. 5, 1971, pp. 34, 36 with expenditure data in Gosbyudzhet I972, p. 94 it is evident that schools, primarily kindergartens, pur- chase nearly all their food in retail outlets, as well as about one-third of all other material purchases.“ The implicit index—'shown in Appendix F—declines by 13 percent during I951-55 and rises by 40 percent during 1956-80; in contrast the implicit official price index (state and collective farm market prices com- bined) declines by 25 percent during 1951-55 and ‘° On this point, see Morris Bornstein in Treml and Hardt, 1972, pp. 355-395. - " Separation of expenditures between material purchases and services follows the approach used in M. R. Eidel’man Mezh0tras- levoy balans obshchestvennogo produkta, Moscow, 1966, p. 165. remains virtually unchanged thereafter. The interpre- tation and limitations of the “alternative” price index are discussed in JEC I976, pp. 631, 651. A revised version of the index, along with a description of sources and methodology, is given in JEC, 1979, p. 766. Despite its limitations, the “alternative” index is believed to reflect price changes far more accurately than the official index. Moreover, even the “alterna- tive” index may be biased downward, because the CIA index itself incorporates several sub-indexes based on the value of retail sales in constant prices as measured by official price indexes. The sub-index for “durables and miscellaneous goods” is the most con- spicuous example. Health. Scope and Coverage. The sector is defined in Soviet statistical practice to include all activities concerned with public health—hospitals, clinics, sana- toria, vacation resorts, homes for the aged and dis- abled, and organizations concerned with social securi- ty and physical culture. In constructing the index of health services, expenditures on vacation resorts and sports activities are removed. The definition, then, corresponds, in the main, to the component “medical care and expenses” in the US national accounts for personal consumption expenditures plus government expenditures on health and hospitals and on medical vendor payments. The index for health services is a weighted average of sub-indexes for “personnel services” and for “other current purchases”—mainly food, medical supplies, utilities, and housekeeping and office expenses. The underlying data are given in Appendix F. The nature of the index is the same as that for “education”, described above. The discussion there of the limita- tions of such an index applies also to the index for health. In constructing the weights for the index, expenditures on physical culture and vacation resorts were deducted; they are included in the sector “re- creation.” Lack of detailed data prevented the re- moval of workers in physical culture from the employ- ment data underlying the indexes. However, their share in total employment is small (5.2 percent in 1966): they are not included in the published outlays for “health,” and therefore are omitted from the index of other current purchases. Weights. The sub-indexes are weighted by estimated expenditures in 1970 on personnel services and on materials and the like. The weights, revised from those used in CIA, GNP I970, are described in Appendix D of JEC, GNP, I950-80. 351 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.