Documents / FOIA release

USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 4 …The volume contains a series of tables estimating the Soviet gross national product and its components…
  • p. 5 …quantified estimates of the value of Soviet gross national product (GNP), its rate of growth, its…
  • p. 6 …The Soviet indices of industrial and agricultural production are based on gross output rather than value…
  • p. 7 …For example, data on the amount of waste included in the gross output data of agricultural…
  • p. 8 …The measure shown represents “net output,” or gross output less products used by agriculture (seed and…
  • p. 9 …compendium on the Soviet eeonomV- “The Real Gross National Product of the U.S.S.R…
  • p. 10 …Contributions of Rush V. Greenslade ________ _________________-________ ____ __ 1x I. Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950—80.-______________________________ 3…
  • p. 12 …Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Part I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF THE USSR, 1950-80 By…
  • p. 14 …Turnover Taxes as a Share of Gross Output in Industry, 1972 6. Subsidies on Agricultural Products…
  • p. 15 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the Soviet Union in Established Prices, 39 by…
  • p. 16 …of Value Added in Agriculture B-8. Gross Output, Total Material Purchases, and Value Added in…
  • p. 17 …I Soviet Gross National Product in Established Priceskby End Use, I if I970 D-6. I…
  • p. 18 …An International Comparison, 1981 Gross National Product of the USSR: An International Comparison, 1982 Soviet Economic…
  • p. 19 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Gross National Product of the USSR, 1950-80 Introduction This paper presents…
  • p. 20 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product in Established Prices, 1955-1975,” Jahrbuch der Wirtsc/la/I Osteuropas…
  • p. 27 …GNP for the Soviet Union and of gross domestic product (GDP) for selected OECD countries.” For…
  • p. 34 …Lee, “USSR Gross National Product," p. 413; and Becker, 1969, p. 128. difference between the growth…
  • p. 35 …conducted on a net rather than a gross basis. The enterprise is expected to be managed…
  • p. 41 …the business sector and are included in gross private business investment. The second US account shows…
  • p. 43 …On the other hand, the tax amounts to 30 percent of the gross output of the…
  • p. 44 …Turnover taxes were 30 and 56 percent of the gross outputs of the sugar and other…
  • p. 45 …The capital stock data used in this study are gross of depreciation. Approved for Release: 2019…
  • p. 47 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 8 Billion Rubles Gross National Product of the Soviet Union ' in…
  • p. 48 …The row and column sums are determined as each sector’s gross output less, respec- tively…
  • p. 49 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Table 10 Percent 1970 Soviet Gross National Product by End Use W…
  • p. 52 …Therefore, value added is computed as a residual—the difference between gross output and current material…
  • p. 53 …Therefore, if in- dexes of gross output and current inputs are both available, the gross output…
  • p. 56 …Each subbranch index measures the gross output of an I-O sector by summing the physical…
  • p. 57 …The material-input index is less desirable than a double deflation or gross output index, but…
  • p. 58 …2019/07/19 C05210421 Appendix A ' Soviet Gross National Product, 1950-80 This appendix presents the…
  • p. 59 …5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8…
  • p. 60 …4 ._ §l§5QfI.i2j§§5 1.0 Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 61 …4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Gross national product 383.3 398.2 405.7…
  • p. 62 …0 5.2 3.7 2.7___ Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5.0…
  • p. 63 …8 7.6 5.8 4.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 64 …5.1 4.; 2.9 7.7“ ' Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 65 …2 3.4 0.8 1 4 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 66 …9 0.3 2.5 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 67 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 68 …3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 69 …3 51.2 55.1 58.3 _ Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 71 …7 134.1 135.2 137.1 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 72 …27.5 24.. ?6i5j_; Gross national product 133.6 137.7 145.8 153.4 160…
  • p. 73 …1 43.7 45.9 s9.7_‘ Gross national product 232.3 245.3 254.5…
  • p. 75 …4.5 1.1 5.9 -3.1 Gross national product 5.5 5.9 5…
  • p. 76 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.1 5.9 5.2…
  • p. 77 …0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 5.6 3.8 -1.1…
  • p. 78 …g 4.3 0.0 0.0 Gross national product 3.9 1.9 7.3…
  • p. 79 …1 28.1 29.1 30.2 Gross national product 741.7 752.2 784.0…
  • p. 80 …9 36.6 31.8 Ww3§’.98W Gross national product 1,083.8 1,124.6…
  • p. 81 …1 46.1 46.9 46.8 Gross national product 1,578.5 1,624.6…
  • p. 82 …3.2 7* 1.4 1.3 Gross national product 3.7 4.0 3.5…
  • p. 83 …1 14.0 13.8 13.5 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 84 …8 13.4 13.3 7 17717 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 85 …4 9.6 8.1 6.9 Gross national product 100.0 100.0 100.0…
  • p. 86 …31.7 65.3______s.9 g Gross national product 34.9 35.9 38.0…
  • p. 87 …9 98.2 103.1 89.1 Gross national product 60.6 64.0 66.4…
  • p. 88 …8 110.4 93.7 81.8 Gross national product 100.0 103.9 105.9…
  • p. 89 …Subtracting the deflated material pur- chases from the deflated gross output produces value added in constant…
  • p. 90 …The ratio of material inputs (gross output less NMP) to gross output declined slowly in this…
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
In making the calculations, allowance was made for a
change in classification in the 1960s. Parental fees
were added to total budget expenditures for
kindergartens.
(4) For the years 1976-80, data on total non-invest-
ment expenditures by major kind of school are given
in Narkhoz I980, p. 525. The percentage shares
obtained for 1975 in step (1) were used to calculate
values of total current purchases for those years.
(b) Price index
Other current purchases by educational institutions
encompass a wide variety of items. The largest cate-
gory is food (estimated from budget data at 47 percent
of the total in 1970). Other sizeable items are services
and miscellaneous outlays (25 percent), bedding and
uniforms (9 percent), and numerous items related to
utilities, office supplies, and housekeeping expenses
(l 5 percent). No satisfactory price index exists or can
be devised to deflate this mix of expenditures. Official
industrial wholesale price indexes are too highly ag-
gregated for categories other than food, and in any
event are of dubious reliability, as are also the official
indexes of retail prices.“ In the belief that some
deflation procedure, however crude, is preferable to
none, it was decided to adopt a deflator that is implicit
when the CIA index of household consumption of
purchased goods in constant prices is compared with
an index of retail sales of such goods in current prices
that can be calculated from official Soviet data. The
justification for employing this “alternative” index is
as follows: (I) the need for some kind of deflation is
recognized; (2) the implicit index is largely indepen-
dent of official price indexes; (3) from a comparison of
data in Vest stat, No. 5, 1971, pp. 34, 36 with
expenditure data in Gosbyudzhet I972, p. 94 it is
evident that schools, primarily kindergartens, pur-
chase nearly all their food in retail outlets, as well as
about one-third of all other material purchases.“
The implicit index—'shown in Appendix F—declines
by 13 percent during I951-55 and rises by 40 percent
during 1956-80; in contrast the implicit official price
index (state and collective farm market prices com-
bined) declines by 25 percent during 1951-55 and
‘° On this point, see Morris Bornstein in Treml and Hardt, 1972, pp.
355-395. -
" Separation of expenditures between material purchases and
services follows the approach used in M. R. Eidel’man Mezh0tras-
levoy balans obshchestvennogo produkta, Moscow, 1966, p. 165.
remains virtually unchanged thereafter. The interpre-
tation and limitations of the “alternative” price index
are discussed in JEC I976, pp. 631, 651. A revised
version of the index, along with a description of
sources and methodology, is given in JEC, 1979, p.
766. Despite its limitations, the “alternative” index is
believed to reflect price changes far more accurately
than the official index. Moreover, even the “alterna-
tive” index may be biased downward, because the
CIA index itself incorporates several sub-indexes
based on the value of retail sales in constant prices as
measured by official price indexes. The sub-index for
“durables and miscellaneous goods” is the most con-
spicuous example.
Health. Scope and Coverage. The sector is defined in
Soviet statistical practice to include all activities
concerned with public health—hospitals, clinics, sana-
toria, vacation resorts, homes for the aged and dis-
abled, and organizations concerned with social securi-
ty and physical culture. In constructing the index of
health services, expenditures on vacation resorts and
sports activities are removed. The definition, then,
corresponds, in the main, to the component “medical
care and expenses” in the US national accounts for
personal consumption expenditures plus government
expenditures on health and hospitals and on medical
vendor payments.
The index for health services is a weighted average of
sub-indexes for “personnel services” and for “other
current purchases”—mainly food, medical supplies,
utilities, and housekeeping and office expenses. The
underlying data are given in Appendix F. The nature
of the index is the same as that for “education”,
described above. The discussion there of the limita-
tions of such an index applies also to the index for
health. In constructing the weights for the index,
expenditures on physical culture and vacation resorts
were deducted; they are included in the sector “re-
creation.” Lack of detailed data prevented the re-
moval of workers in physical culture from the employ-
ment data underlying the indexes. However, their
share in total employment is small (5.2 percent in
1966): they are not included in the published outlays
for “health,” and therefore are omitted from the
index of other current purchases.
Weights. The sub-indexes are weighted by estimated
expenditures in 1970 on personnel services and on
materials and the like. The weights, revised from
those used in CIA, GNP I970, are described in
Appendix D of JEC, GNP, I950-80.
351
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.