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USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-80

Central Intelligence Agency · 1982-12-08 · 399 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.

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Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
Weights. The weights used to combine the sub-
indexes for personnel services and other current ex-
penditures are their respective shares in 1970 of total
expenditures on education, excluding investment and
student stipends. Their derivation, revised from that
used in CIA, GNP I970, is explained in Appendix D
of JEC, GNP, I950-80.
Indexes. Personnel services. The index of total man-
hours worked in education was obtained as follows:
a. Estimates of manhour employment in “education
and culture” combined during 1950-74 are presented
and the derivation described by Stephen Rapawy,
Foreign Economic Report No. 10 (loc. cit.), pp. 50-51
and extended to 1980 by him.
b. Estimates of total manhours worked in education -
alone were obtained by subtracting estimated man-
hours in culture from manhours in education and
culture combined. Estimates of manhours in culture
were obtained by multiplying employment in culture
in each year by the number of manhours worked per
person.
c. Average annual employment in culture is given for
1940, 1965, 1970-75 in Narkhoz 1975, p. 533, for
1966 in Trud v SSSR, 1968, p. 27 and for 1976-80 in
Narkhoz I980, p. 358. Employment in culture in
1965 and 1966 was 8.4 percent of total employment in
education and culture; its share was about the same in
1940. Accordingly, employment in culture in 1950-64
was calculated by assuming that its share was 8.4
percent in each year. Estimates for 1967-69 were
interpolated. Employment in education is obtained by
subtraction for those years in which it is not reported
directly.
d. Average annual man-hours worked in culture are
estimated by a procedure similar to that used by
Rapawy (loc. cit). The procedure assumes that hours
worked annually per person employed in culture
follows the trend derived for industry. The level of
annual manhours in culture was calculated by apply-
ing to the level for industry in each year the ratio of
the scheduled workweek in culture (38.6) to that in
industry (40.7), as reported in Vest stat, No. 4, 1978,
pp. 94-95.
Other current purchases. The index is based on esti-
mates of these purchases in current prices, deflated by
a price index. _
(a) Other current purchases in current prices
Total purchases in each year are based on estimates
made separately for kindergartens, general education
schools (including children’s homes and boarding
schools), higher education‘ (vuzy),and secondary spe-
cialized educational institutions (tekhnikums). Expen-
ditures for these types of schools make up over 80
percent of total outlays on education. Data for other
schools (mainly trade schools, correspondence schools
and the like) are not available.
The procedure used to estimate other current pur-
chases for each type of school was as follows: (1) using
the distribution of expenditures in the budget of the
union-republics, investment expenditures were first
deducted from total expenditures to obtain a series for
total non-investment outlays. From this value for each
year was then deducted the sum of wages and social
insurance, stipends, capital repair, and purchases of
equipment. The result is a series of values for other
current purchases financed from the budgets of the
republics.
(2) The values obtained in step (1) were expressed as
percentages of total non-investment outlays from re-
public budgets. To obtain the values for other current
purchases for the USSR as a whole, these percentage
shares were multiplied by total non-investment out-
lays reported or calculated for the USSR The proce-
dure assumes that the distribution of expenditures for
each type of school in the total state budget is the
same as that in the sum of republic budgets. The
latter accounted for roughly 85 percent of the total in
1975. The distributions of expenditures in both types
of budgets were similar in 1950-57, the only years
when distributions pertaining to the total budget fbr
the USSR are available.
(3) Distribution of expenditures from union-republics
budgets by type of school, as well as total expendi-
tures for the USSR, are available for the years 1950-
57 and 1960-75 in the following sources: Raskhody po
sotsial ‘no-kulturnyye meropriyatiya p0 g0sudarst-
vennomu byudzhetu SSSR, Moscow, 1958, (hereafter
referred to as Raskhody), pp. 11, 12, 38, 49-58, 95,
97. Gosbyudzhet I966, pp. 23-24, 79, 82, 85-87, 89.
Gosbyudzhet I972, pp. 27-28, 85, 87, 91-94. Gos-
byudzhet I976, pp. 25-26, 82, 85, 88-91.
350
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.