Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Gross”60+ pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 Weights. The weights used to combine the sub- indexes for personnel services and other current ex- penditures are their respective shares in 1970 of total expenditures on education, excluding investment and student stipends. Their derivation, revised from that used in CIA, GNP I970, is explained in Appendix D of JEC, GNP, I950-80. Indexes. Personnel services. The index of total man- hours worked in education was obtained as follows: a. Estimates of manhour employment in “education and culture” combined during 1950-74 are presented and the derivation described by Stephen Rapawy, Foreign Economic Report No. 10 (loc. cit.), pp. 50-51 and extended to 1980 by him. b. Estimates of total manhours worked in education - alone were obtained by subtracting estimated man- hours in culture from manhours in education and culture combined. Estimates of manhours in culture were obtained by multiplying employment in culture in each year by the number of manhours worked per person. c. Average annual employment in culture is given for 1940, 1965, 1970-75 in Narkhoz 1975, p. 533, for 1966 in Trud v SSSR, 1968, p. 27 and for 1976-80 in Narkhoz I980, p. 358. Employment in culture in 1965 and 1966 was 8.4 percent of total employment in education and culture; its share was about the same in 1940. Accordingly, employment in culture in 1950-64 was calculated by assuming that its share was 8.4 percent in each year. Estimates for 1967-69 were interpolated. Employment in education is obtained by subtraction for those years in which it is not reported directly. d. Average annual man-hours worked in culture are estimated by a procedure similar to that used by Rapawy (loc. cit). The procedure assumes that hours worked annually per person employed in culture follows the trend derived for industry. The level of annual manhours in culture was calculated by apply- ing to the level for industry in each year the ratio of the scheduled workweek in culture (38.6) to that in industry (40.7), as reported in Vest stat, No. 4, 1978, pp. 94-95. Other current purchases. The index is based on esti- mates of these purchases in current prices, deflated by a price index. _ (a) Other current purchases in current prices Total purchases in each year are based on estimates made separately for kindergartens, general education schools (including children’s homes and boarding schools), higher education‘ (vuzy),and secondary spe- cialized educational institutions (tekhnikums). Expen- ditures for these types of schools make up over 80 percent of total outlays on education. Data for other schools (mainly trade schools, correspondence schools and the like) are not available. The procedure used to estimate other current pur- chases for each type of school was as follows: (1) using the distribution of expenditures in the budget of the union-republics, investment expenditures were first deducted from total expenditures to obtain a series for total non-investment outlays. From this value for each year was then deducted the sum of wages and social insurance, stipends, capital repair, and purchases of equipment. The result is a series of values for other current purchases financed from the budgets of the republics. (2) The values obtained in step (1) were expressed as percentages of total non-investment outlays from re- public budgets. To obtain the values for other current purchases for the USSR as a whole, these percentage shares were multiplied by total non-investment out- lays reported or calculated for the USSR The proce- dure assumes that the distribution of expenditures for each type of school in the total state budget is the same as that in the sum of republic budgets. The latter accounted for roughly 85 percent of the total in 1975. The distributions of expenditures in both types of budgets were similar in 1950-57, the only years when distributions pertaining to the total budget fbr the USSR are available. (3) Distribution of expenditures from union-republics budgets by type of school, as well as total expendi- tures for the USSR, are available for the years 1950- 57 and 1960-75 in the following sources: Raskhody po sotsial ‘no-kulturnyye meropriyatiya p0 g0sudarst- vennomu byudzhetu SSSR, Moscow, 1958, (hereafter referred to as Raskhody), pp. 11, 12, 38, 49-58, 95, 97. Gosbyudzhet I966, pp. 23-24, 79, 82, 85-87, 89. Gosbyudzhet I972, pp. 27-28, 85, 87, 91-94. Gos- byudzhet I976, pp. 25-26, 82, 85, 88-91. 350 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.