Documents / FOIA release
This Joint Committee Print, dated December 8, 1982, gathers studies that the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. It gives estimates of Soviet gross national product for 1950 to 1980, with indexes of industrial production, agricultural production and consumption, and explains the methods and data behind them. The foreword says official Soviet statistics inflate growth and that the CIA measures offer a more accurate picture. The document contains no UFO material.
“Cooper”25 pages
Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421 expenditure weights. Despite reservations concerning both the sub-indexes and weights, the composite index probably reflects real outlays on recreation reasonably well. Its relatively slow growth is consistent with the traditional reluctance of the Soviet government to invest in the provision of recreational facilities and with the impact of rapidly growing availability of television on attendance at movies and similar activities. Weights. The derivation of the 1970 expenditure weights for the three sub-indexes is explained in CIA, GNP 1970, p. 42. Indexes. Entertainment. The index is based on the sum of the numbers of paid admissions to movies and admissions to theaters. These are the only series of data on entertainment that are regularly published. The data are to be found in two tables regularly published in annual handbooks, e.g., Narkhoz 1972, p. 669. Vacation resorts. The index is based on the number of persons staying at “sanatoria, resort polyclinics, rest homes and pensions" in each year; the series excludes visitors to “rest bases" and “tourist bases,” which are essentially campgrounds and shelters. There are no other data available to reflect such forms of recrea- ~tion. Data for 1950, l958, 1960-80 are given in tables regularly published in Narkhozy, e.g. Narkhoz 1972, p. 569. Growth rates for other years are interpolated. Leisure. The index is based on manhour employment in hotels. There are no other data available on this form of travel and recreation, which is greatly under- developed in the Soviet Union. Employment in hotels was estimated for 1950-69 in Stephen Rapawy, Com- parison of US and USSR Civilian Employment in Government, I950-1969, US Bureau of the Census, International Population Reports, P-95, No. 69, April I972, p. 17. Estimates for subsequent years are based on the assumption that employment in hotels in- creased at the same rate as employment in the housing—communal economy, regularly reported in Narkhoz, e.g., Narkhoz I977, p. 378. The annual number of manhours worked in hotels is assumed to be the same as that in housing-communal economy. Manhours for 1950-74 are estimated in Stephen Rapawy, Estimates and Projections of Civilian Em- ployment in the USSR, 1950-1990, US Bureau of the Census, Foreign Economic Report No. 10, September 1976, p. 60, and extended to 1980 by him. Communal Services The index of communal services is a weighted aggre- gate of separate indexes for education and for health. The coverage of these services, nearly all state-pro- vided, is virtually complete. The 1970 weights used to combine the indexes are total current expenditures on these services by the population and by the govern- ment. The data underlying the two sub-indexes are shown in Appendix F. Education. Scope and Coverage. The definition of the sector follows Soviet statistical practice and includes (1) kindergartens and all types of general education schools concerned with the education and rearing of children, (2) trade schools (vocational-technical schools), and (3) higher and secondary specialized educational institutions of all kinds (Melodicheskiye ukazaniya, I974, pp. 755-56). The coverage coincides, mostly, with “private education and research,“ a component of personal consumption expenditures in the US national accounts, plus government expendi- tures on education. Expenditures on nursery schools and on public libraries in the US are included in education; in the USSR, the former are included in “health” and the latter in “culture.” The index of education services is a weighted compos- itc of two sub-indexes personnel services and other current purchases, mainly food, utilities and supplies. The index for personnel is a measure of manhour employment and is used to move wage expenditures in I970. The result is equivalent to the procedure used by Bergson and Becker and also to that in the US. where total wage expenditures are deflated by an index of average wages. The index for other expendi- tures is a deflated value series, as are similar indexes constructed by Bergson for the USSR for I928-55 and by the Department of Commerce for the US. Use of manhours as a measure of personnel services makes no allowance either for productivity change or fo:r improvement in the quality of education in general that may have resulted from changing skill mixes and an upgrading of the level of qualification of teaching staffs. Because a suitable measure of productivity in education has yet to be devised _and agreed upon, the practice in the US and elsewhere is to measure education services in real terms on the basis of inputs, as is done here for the USSR. ln its measure, the US does make some allowance for changes in the quality of labor inputs (skill mixes). The data required for an adjustment for rising qualifications and changes in skill mixes are not available for the USSR. 349 Approved for Release: 2019/07/19 C05210421
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 399 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.